Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 16). Samsunspor had 4 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 4 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Samsunspor55%
Draw24%
Fatih Karagümrük21%
Samsunspor54%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük21%
Samsunspor55%
Draw24%
Fatih Karagümrük21%
Samsunspor47%
Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük27%
Samsunspor54%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük21%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Samsunspor
Fatih Karagümrük
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
15
AttackIn forecast
13
18
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporFatih Karagümrük
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.61
0.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
20%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.20
ShotsContext
10.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
30%
On target shareContext
28%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
4.60
58%
Box shareContext
49%
8%
ConversionContext
4%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.20
9.40
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.75
BlocksContext
3.25
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
87%
Save rateContext
64%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
445
PassesContext
398
376
Accurate passesContext
321
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.54
13.00
FoulsContext
11.80
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.61
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.10
ShotsContext
11.40
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
36%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
59%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.44
10.44
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.63
BlocksContext
3.44
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
77%
Save rateContext
58%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
456
PassesContext
373
388
Accurate passesContext
297
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.70
FoulsContext
11.10
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Sep | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
55Y. Çift
70T. Coulibaly
10J. Ntcham
21C. Holse
7A. Musaba
19P. Ndiaye
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
29J. Balkovec
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
6A. Çankaya
47Ricardo Esgaio
14Marius Tresor Doh
11D. Johnson
70Serginho
8B. Özcan
21T. Çukur
91A. Gray
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Samsunspor wins0 draws1 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 25 May 2024Fatih Karagümrük3–1Samsunspor
- 6 Jan 2024Samsunspor1–0Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.20 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 80% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Samsunspor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.20 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 80% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.60 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Samsunspor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.10 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 4.60
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+20%league 50%
Fouls22.2league 26.5
Penalties0.20league 0.27
Home wins40%league 38%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor5 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük5 games · scored 2 · conceded 9
2
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
3
0-15
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
