Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 31). Fenerbahce come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Samsunspor had 8.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 3 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days8.1 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 4
Samsunspor28%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce46%
Samsunspor26%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce48%
Samsunspor29%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce45%
Samsunspor22%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce54%
Samsunspor25%
Draw26%
Fenerbahce49%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 17
Team strength
Samsunspor
Fenerbahce
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
15
AttackIn forecast
75
18
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporFenerbahce
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.57
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
86%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.00
ShotsContext
17.14
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
31%
On target shareContext
33%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
9.86
56%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.57
Shots allowedContext
7.57
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
4.00
BlocksContext
3.60
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.60
80%
Save rateContext
80%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
396
PassesContext
514
327
Accurate passesContext
449
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.03
14.57
FoulsContext
13.14
9.29
Fouls sufferedContext
14.57
2.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.70
ShotsContext
14.90
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
33%
On target shareContext
34%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
59%
Box shareContext
47%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.20
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.30
3.33
BlocksContext
3.38
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
79%
Save rateContext
77%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
386
PassesContext
505
314
Accurate passesContext
435
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.95
13.60
FoulsContext
13.60
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km956 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel619 km2,348 km in 14d
Schedule load54%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 54 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 956 km | 2,348 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
7A. Musaba
10J. Ntcham
21C. Holse
70T. Coulibaly
9M. Mouandilmadji
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
13T. Çetin(G)
3A. Brown
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
11E. Álvarez
9M. Aktürkoğlu
21Marco Asensio
94Talisca
53S. Szymański
19Y. En-Nesyri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fenerbahce+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Fenerbahce · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Samsunspor wins3 draws1 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 16 Mar 2025Fenerbahce0–0Samsunspor
- 20 Oct 2024Samsunspor2–2Fenerbahce
- 21 Jan 2024Fenerbahce1–1Samsunspor
- 21 Aug 2023Samsunspor0–2Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.43 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Samsunspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.67 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 56% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 11% | |
| Games | 7 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 8.50 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 6.15 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Samsunspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.14 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.65league 4.65
Red cards0.18league 0.29
Cards 5+59%league 53%
Fouls24.4league 26.9
Penalties0.18league 0.29
Home wins35%league 37%
Samsunspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Sivasspor1–01
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor7 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fenerbahce7 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
