Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce – 30 Aug 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 30 · 19:30 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

Samsunspor 5th · 4 pts · 2 played DW

0–2Full time

Fenerbahce 10th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 35). Samsunspor had 8.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 4 and had to travel 619 km.

Away travel619 kmRest days8.1 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3

Samsunspor27%

Draw22%

Fenerbahce51%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.96

Samsunspor28%

Draw25%

Fenerbahce47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Samsunspor27%

Draw22%

Fenerbahce51%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.96

Samsunspor21%

Draw20%

Fenerbahce59%

Expected goals 1.25 – 2.19

Samsunspor28%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce50%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.87

Over 2.5 65% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Samsun)

No weather data yet

RefereeYasin Kol

Cards per match 5.6
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 41

Team strength

Samsunspor

Fenerbahce

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

15 AttackIn forecast 75

18 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Samsunspor

Fenerbahce

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 2.63

1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.93 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

100% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.50 ShotsContext 23.50

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 10.00

22% On target shareContext 43%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 18.50

58% Box shareContext 80%

19% ConversionContext 11%

— OffsidesContext 1.50

24.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50

7.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

7.50 BlocksContext 1.50

6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

80% Save rateContext 64%

55% PossessionIn forecast 60%

437 PassesContext 548

346 Accurate passesContext 494

79% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.89

9.50 FoulsContext 10.50

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 2.37

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

+0.85 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

90% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.00 ShotsContext 17.10

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.40

38% On target shareContext 43%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.40

65% Box shareContext 66%

17% ConversionContext 11%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.43

16.10 Shots allowedContext 11.30

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

5.10 BlocksContext 3.40

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

67% Save rateContext 79%

57% PossessionIn forecast 60%

441 PassesContext 523

370 Accurate passesContext 460

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.05

12.90 FoulsContext 11.90

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor DW

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km703 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 54 · 4 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W22 AugA · Rizespor2–01.3 xPts
D17 AugH · Goztepe3–31.6 xPts

Fenerbahce LW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel619 km4,002 km in 14d

Schedule load31%Moderate

Form 41 · 3 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected

W22 AugH · Konyaspor4–22.4 xPts
L15 AugA · Genclerbirligi1–22.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Samsunspor	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 31
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 22 Aug	4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 26 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	619 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	703 km	4,002 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 34G. Guarino 24T. Borevković 2J. Mendes

4Elliot Watt 5C. Yüksel

11E. Kılınç 20Y. Kayan 30Saikuba Jarju

14F. Kaya

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

91N. Kanté 6M. Guendouzi

70O. Aydın 17İ. Kahveci 11M. Greenwood

19V. Muriqi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Samsunspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Samsunspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fenerbahce+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 3.00

Fenerbahce · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Samsunspor wins4 draws2 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 50%

8 Mar 2026Fenerbahce3–2Samsunspor
5 Oct 2025Samsunspor0–0Fenerbahce
16 Mar 2025Fenerbahce0–0Samsunspor
20 Oct 2024Samsunspor2–2Fenerbahce
21 Jan 2024Fenerbahce1–1Samsunspor
21 Aug 2023Samsunspor0–2Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Samsunspor	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	2.50
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	4.00	4.50	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	65%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Samsunspor	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.90
Conceded per game	1.70	1.00
Match goals	3.90	2.90	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	90%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Samsunspor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	9.50
Corners conceded	9.00	2.00
Match total	11.50	11.50	8.95
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	3.50	2.00	3.20
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Samsunspor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	6.63
Corners conceded	6.00	4.38
Match total	10.78	11.01	8.95
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.00
Opponent cards	2.60	1.90
Match total	4.90	3.90	3.20
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Yasin Kol 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.22league 3.13

Red cards0.41league 0.17

Cards 5+61%league 30%

Fouls26.7league 25.9

Penalties0.37league 0.35

Home wins37%league 43%

Samsunspor5 with this referee

Record4-0-1 Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

W13 Apr 26A · Eyüpspor2–13
L21 Dec 25A · Goztepe0–22
W9 Nov 25H · Eyüpspor1–02
W26 Apr 25A · BB Bodrumspor2–14
W16 Feb 25A · Konyaspor1–06

Fenerbahce7 with this referee

Record2-3-2 Cards · opp.3.3 · 4.9 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds2

L26 Apr 26A · Galatasaray0–36
W5 Apr 26H · Besiktas1–02
D23 Feb 26H · Kasimpasa1–13
D1 Dec 25H · Galatasaray1–13
D16 Aug 25A · Goztepe0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.