Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were slight favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Samsunspor. Samsunspor had 5.1 days of rest, Galatasaray 6 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days5.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Samsunspor27%
Draw23%
Galatasaray50%
Samsunspor20%
Draw24%
Galatasaray56%
Samsunspor27%
Draw24%
Galatasaray49%
Samsunspor21%
Draw22%
Galatasaray58%
Samsunspor27%
Draw24%
Galatasaray49%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeResat Onur Coskunses
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Samsunspor
Galatasaray
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
15
AttackIn forecast
57
18
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporGalatasaray
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.32
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.74
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
74%
Scored inContext
90%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
12.61
ShotsContext
15.71
4.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.45
31%
On target shareContext
35%
7.87
Shots in the boxContext
11.33
61%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.32
11.45
Shots allowedContext
9.90
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
3.26
BlocksContext
2.71
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
68%
Save rateContext
79%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
430
PassesContext
495
360
Accurate passesContext
432
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.06
14.58
FoulsContext
12.35
11.45
Fouls sufferedContext
10.32
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.80
ShotsContext
12.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
34%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
71%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.22
OffsidesContext
4.33
11.50
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.20
BlocksContext
2.90
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
60%
Save rateContext
79%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
457
PassesContext
437
384
Accurate passesContext
364
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.96
14.60
FoulsContext
12.70
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,375 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel619 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,375 km | 704 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
2J. Mendes
20Y. Kayan
21C. Holse
70T. Coulibaly
29A. Makoumbou
19P. Ndiaye
9Marius
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
19G. Güvenç(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
99M. Lemina
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Galatasaray+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.47points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-7-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.07
Galatasaray · Away
2.27points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Besiktas | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rizespor | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 45 of 90 · 1.50 per game | 71 of 90 · 2.37 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Samsunspor wins0 draws5 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.80
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 5 Dec 2025Galatasaray3–2Samsunspor
- 11 Apr 2025Samsunspor0–2Galatasaray
- 10 Nov 2024Galatasaray3–2Samsunspor
- 2 Feb 2024Samsunspor0–2Galatasaray
- 16 Sep 2023Galatasaray4–2Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 2.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 0.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 3.06 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 68% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 55% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 10% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Samsunspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.47 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.47 | 3.45 | |
| Match total | 9.94 | 8.83 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 14/30 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 12/30 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 2.03 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 2.35 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 4.38 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 18/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 13/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Samsunspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.11 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.60 | 4.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Resat Onur Coskunses Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 4.44
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls26.0league 26.0
Penalties0.00league 0.28
Home wins50%league 41%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
GalatasarayNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor31 games · scored 39 · conceded 41
6
3
0-15
2
7
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
12
14
76-90
Galatasaray31 games · scored 72 · conceded 23
11
3
0-15
11
2
16-30
9
1
31-45
11
4
46-60
15
8
61-75
15
5
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
