Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Samsunspor
7th · 31 pts · 23 played
DWLLD
0–0Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 28 pts · 23 played
DLWLL
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Samsunspor. Samsunspor had 7 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 7.2 and had to travel 478 km.
Away travel478 kmRest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Samsunspor52%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep23%
Samsunspor50%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep24%
Samsunspor52%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep22%
Samsunspor44%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep29%
Samsunspor51%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep23%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 15
Team strength
SamsunsporGazişehir Gaziantep
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
15
AttackIn forecast
15
18
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporGazişehir Gaziantep
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.74
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
74%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.22
ShotsContext
13.00
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.26
28%
On target shareContext
33%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.96
58%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.76
11.52
Shots allowedContext
13.52
3.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.96
3.16
BlocksContext
3.48
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
72%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
418
PassesContext
381
348
Accurate passesContext
316
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.22
FoulsContext
13.00
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
16.70
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
50%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.30
ShotsContext
11.80
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
24%
On target shareContext
31%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
53%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.80
Shots allowedContext
15.20
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.57
BlocksContext
4.60
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
67%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
489
PassesContext
340
415
Accurate passesContext
275
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.30
FoulsContext
13.00
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
17.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel478 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 478 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
4R. van Drongelen
55Y. Çift
24T. Borevković
17L. Tómasson
20Y. Kayan
5C. Yüksel
2J. Mendes
47Jaures Assoumou
9Marius
7E. Tavşan
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
5N. Mujakić
14L. Abena
23T. Sanuç
77K. Rodrigues
3D. Camara
61O. Özçiçek
30N. Sangaré
11C. Lungoyi
9M. Bayo
10K. Kozłowski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-3
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.09
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.18points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | L 1–5 A |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 30 of 66 · 1.36 per game | 27 of 66 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Samsunspor wins2 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 27 Sep 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–2Samsunspor
- 24 Jan 2025Samsunspor2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 18 Aug 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Samsunspor
- 18 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–1Samsunspor
- 29 Sep 2023Samsunspor1–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.74 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 3.04 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 61% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Samsunspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 5.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.05 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 9.32 | 10.00 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 3.26 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 6.48 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 12/23 | 87% 20/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 8/23 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Samsunspor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.90 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 6.30 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.13league 4.43
Red cards0.07league 0.21
Cards 5+27%league 46%
Fouls24.2league 26.0
Penalties0.13league 0.26
Home wins53%league 38%
Samsunspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Dec 25A · Galatasaray2–32
Gazişehir Gaziantep3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W9 Feb 26H · Kasimpasa2–14
- W22 Nov 25A · Kayserispor3–01
- L3 May 25A · Rizespor0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor23 games · scored 25 · conceded 27
5
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep23 games · scored 30 · conceded 40
4
6
0-15
5
10
16-30
8
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
3
13
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
