Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were clear favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 12). Samsunspor had ? days of rest, Genclerbirligi ? and had to travel 331 km.
Away travel331 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Samsunspor60%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi17%
Samsunspor60%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi17%
Samsunspor60%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi17%
Samsunspor53%
Draw25%
Genclerbirligi22%
Samsunspor60%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi17%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Samsunspor
Genclerbirligi
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
15
AttackIn forecast
13
18
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporGenclerbirligi
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
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—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
—
30%
Clean sheetsContext
—
11.00
ShotsContext
—
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
37%
On target shareContext
—
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
—
61%
Box shareContext
—
10%
ConversionContext
—
2.63
OffsidesContext
—
13.89
Shots allowedContext
—
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.50
BlocksContext
—
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
67%
Save rateContext
—
49%
PossessionIn forecast
—
411
PassesContext
—
332
Accurate passesContext
—
81%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.95
Team ratingContext
—
10.90
FoulsContext
—
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel331 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 331 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
10J. Ntcham
5C. Yüksel
21C. Holse
11E. Kılınç
9M. Mouandilmadji
14L. Dimata
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
1G. Akkan(G)
77A. Dursun
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
5O. Etebo
81M. Kyabou
10M. Mimaroğlu
14Michał Nalepa
88F. Üzüm
9D. Popa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Genclerbirligi+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
No home games yet this season.
Genclerbirligi · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Samsunspor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 6.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Samsunspor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | — | |
| Match total | 9.67 | — | 4.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | — | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | — | |
| Match total | 5.60 | — | 6.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | — | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | — | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 5.00
Red cards0.00league 1.00
Cards 5+50%league 100%
Fouls26.5league 29.0
Penalties1.00league 2.00
Home wins0%league 0%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SamsunsporGenclerbirligiSamsunspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Genclerbirligiscored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
