Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Goztepe. Samsunspor had 7 days of rest, Goztepe 7 and had to travel 847 km.
Away travel847 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Samsunspor41%
Draw26%
Goztepe33%
Samsunspor43%
Draw27%
Goztepe30%
Samsunspor41%
Draw26%
Goztepe32%
Samsunspor33%
Draw26%
Goztepe41%
Samsunspor39%
Draw26%
Goztepe34%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeUmit Ozturk
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 9
Team strength
Samsunspor
Goztepe
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
15
AttackIn forecast
39
18
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporGoztepe
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
73%
Scored inContext
76%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
12.48
ShotsContext
13.48
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.76
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.04
11.73
Shots allowedContext
11.64
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
3.34
BlocksContext
3.47
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
67%
Save rateContext
77%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
428
PassesContext
245
358
Accurate passesContext
170
84%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.55
FoulsContext
17.00
11.55
Fouls sufferedContext
9.42
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
2.45
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
14.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
34%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
68%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.50
BlocksContext
3.10
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
62%
Save rateContext
63%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
455
PassesContext
240
385
Accurate passesContext
166
85%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.40
FoulsContext
17.40
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel847 km2,227 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 847 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 2,227 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 93.1 | 93.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
28S. Gönül
15Ali Diabaté
4R. van Drongelen
18Z. Yavru
20Y. Kayan
7E. Tavşan
10J. Ntcham
21C. Holse
70T. Coulibaly
9Marius
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
39Janderson
9Juan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Goztepe+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.56points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-7-3
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.06
Goztepe · Away
1.50points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 0.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | W 4–1 HL 2–3 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Rizespor | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 48 of 96 · 1.50 per game | 52 of 96 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Samsunspor wins1 draws1 Goztepe wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 21 Dec 2025Goztepe2–0Samsunspor
- 3 Mar 2025Goztepe2–2Samsunspor
- 28 Sep 2024Samsunspor4–3Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.15 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 39% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 45% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 24% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Samsunspor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.66 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 9.19 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 20/32 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 14/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 12/32 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 5.00 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 20/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 13/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Samsunspor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.22 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.60 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Umit Ozturk Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 4.42
Red cards0.11league 0.21
Cards 5+56%league 44%
Fouls24.7league 26.0
Penalties0.44league 0.30
Home wins11%league 42%
Samsunspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Oct 25A · Kayserispor3–13
GoztepeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor33 games · scored 43 · conceded 45
6
5
0-15
3
7
16-30
7
8
31-45
8
6
46-60
6
4
61-75
13
15
76-90
Goztepe33 games · scored 42 · conceded 29
6
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
8
6
46-60
5
5
61-75
9
7
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
6
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
