Samsunspor vs Goztepe – 17 Aug 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 1 Mon, Aug 17 · 19:30 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

Samsunspor

3–3Full time

Goztepe

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Samsunspor were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Samsunspor usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Samsunspor had 93.1 days of rest, Goztepe 93.1 and had to travel 847 km.

Away travel847 kmRest days93.1 · 93.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Samsunspor47%

Draw25%

Goztepe28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.21

Samsunspor46%

Draw25%

Goztepe28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.16

Samsunspor47%

Draw25%

Goztepe28%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.21

Samsunspor40%

Draw25%

Goztepe35%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.35

Samsunspor46%

Draw24%

Goztepe30%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.25

Over 2.5 54% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Samsun)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 18

Team strength

Samsunspor

Goztepe

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

15 AttackIn forecast 39

18 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Goztepe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Samsunspor

Goztepe

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.99

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 15.70

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

41% On target shareContext 33%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.40

69% Box shareContext 73%

16% ConversionContext 10%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.56

14.10 Shots allowedContext 11.90

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

4.10 BlocksContext 3.10

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

71% Save rateContext 63%

59% PossessionIn forecast 38%

445 PassesContext 236

378 Accurate passesContext 164

85% Pass accuracyContext 70%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.10 FoulsContext 17.60

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor

Rest93.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Goztepe

Rest93.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel847 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Samsunspor	Goztepe
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	93.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 May	93.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	847 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 6Ali Diabaté 24T. Borevković 2J. Mendes

20Y. Kayan 5C. Yüksel 29A. Makoumbou

11E. Kılınç 9Marius 30Saikuba Jarju

Goztepe Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

25L. Gugeshashvili(G)

13E. Yildirim 3Allan 4T. Altıkardeş

15A. Cherni 20N. Miroshi 6A. Matos 2A. Kurtulan

8A. Antunes

22S. Armstrong 7André Henrique

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Samsunspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Goztepe Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Samsunspor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Goztepe+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home No home games yet this season.

Goztepe · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Samsunspor wins1 draws1 Goztepe wins

Goals per game2.25 – 1.75 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

16 May 2026Samsunspor3–0Goztepe
21 Dec 2025Goztepe2–0Samsunspor
3 Mar 2025Goztepe2–2Samsunspor
28 Sep 2024Samsunspor4–3Goztepe

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Samsunspor	Goztepe	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.83
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Samsunspor	Goztepe	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.50
Conceded per game	1.80	1.60
Match goals	3.90	3.10	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Samsunspor	Goztepe	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.14
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.86
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Samsunspor	Goztepe	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	4.38
Corners conceded	6.22	4.13
Match total	11.33	8.51	10.14
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.70	3.00
Opponent cards	2.30	2.90
Match total	5.00	5.90	2.86
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.17league 3.00

Red cards0.17league 0.25

Cards 5+56%league 38%

Fouls28.9league 25.3

Penalties0.22league 0.25

Home wins33%league 50%

Samsunspor2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D18 Jan 26A · Genclerbirligi1–12
D1 Dec 25H · Alanyaspor1–14

Goztepe2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D27 Sep 25A · Eyüpspor0–01
W28 Apr 25H · Istanbul Basaksehir4–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.