Samsunspor vs Kasimpasa – 17 Sep 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 3 Wed, Sep 17 · 18:00 Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

Samsunspor 9th · 7 pts · 4 played WWDL

0–0Full time

Kasimpasa 13th · 3 pts · 4 played LLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Samsunspor were slight favourites.

Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 21). Absences weigh more on Samsunspor. Samsunspor had 4.1 days of rest, Kasimpasa 4.1 and had to travel 619 km.

Away travel619 kmRest days4.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Samsunspor49%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa26%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.13

Samsunspor50%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Samsunspor50%

Draw25%

Kasimpasa24%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.11

Samsunspor41%

Draw27%

Kasimpasa32%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.27

Samsunspor48%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.11

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Samsun)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 1.20
Matches 5

Team strength

Samsunspor

Kasimpasa

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

15 AttackIn forecast 21

18 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Samsunspor

Kasimpasa

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

0.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

100% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.75 ShotsContext 11.00

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

29% On target shareContext 18%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.75

58% Box shareContext 48%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.75 Shots allowedContext 11.75

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.67 BlocksContext 2.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

82% Save rateContext 67%

58% PossessionIn forecast 49%

431 PassesContext 341

365 Accurate passesContext 271

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.75 FoulsContext 18.25

9.75 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 13.70

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

35% On target shareContext 31%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

58% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.10

9.67 Shots allowedContext 10.20

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.38 BlocksContext 2.13

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

74% Save rateContext 61%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

421 PassesContext 390

354 Accurate passesContext 319

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.40 FoulsContext 15.50

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Samsunspor

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kasimpasa

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel619 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Samsunspor	Kasimpasa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Sep	4.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	619 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

4R. van Drongelen 24T. Borevković 37Ľ. Šatka

17L. Tómasson 10J. Ntcham 5C. Yüksel 2J. Mendes

21C. Holse 7A. Musaba

9M. Mouandilmadji

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

21G. Frimpong 41A. Szalai 20N. Opoku 2C. Winck Neto

6Cem Üstündag 16A. Baldursson

11A. Kol 10H. Hajradinović 12A. Ben Ouanes

7M. Fall

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Samsunspor Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kasimpasa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Samsunspor-1.5 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Kasimpasa+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Samsunspor · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Kasimpasa · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Samsunspor	Kasimpasa
Antalyaspor	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Trabzonspor	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Samsunspor wins0 draws2 Kasimpasa wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

29 Mar 2025Samsunspor0–2Kasimpasa
26 Oct 2024Kasimpasa1–4Samsunspor
27 Apr 2024Kasimpasa1–0Samsunspor
9 Dec 2023Samsunspor4–2Kasimpasa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Samsunspor	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	2.25	2.50	2.77
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	4	4

	Samsunspor	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	2.25	2.50	2.77
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Samsunspor	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.25	4.00
Corners conceded	2.75	4.25
Match total	9.00	8.25	9.39
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	2.25	3.00
Opponent cards	1.50	2.25
Match total	3.75	5.25	4.64
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	100% 4/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4

	Samsunspor	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.80
Corners conceded	4.40	3.40
Match total	10.40	9.20	9.39
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	3.00
Opponent cards	2.60	2.20
Match total	4.90	5.20	4.64
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.46

Red cards0.20league 0.31

Cards 5+80%league 49%

Fouls23.8league 26.0

Penalties1.20league 0.28

Home wins60%league 41%

Samsunspor

No previous matches with this referee.

Kasimpasa1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W19 Apr 25H · Sivasspor3–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.