Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Rizespor. Samsunspor had 8.2 days of rest, Rizespor 5 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days8.2 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2
Samsunspor58%
Draw23%
Rizespor19%
Samsunspor56%
Draw24%
Rizespor20%
Samsunspor56%
Draw24%
Rizespor20%
Samsunspor50%
Draw25%
Rizespor24%
Samsunspor58%
Draw23%
Rizespor19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 7
Team strength
Samsunspor
Rizespor
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
15
AttackIn forecast
22
18
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporRizespor
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
78%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.22
ShotsContext
12.11
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
33%
On target shareContext
27%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
60%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.56
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.38
BlocksContext
3.25
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
79%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
386
PassesContext
388
317
Accurate passesContext
317
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.89
FoulsContext
14.33
10.11
Fouls sufferedContext
12.78
2.56
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
70%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.80
ShotsContext
13.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
65%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.75
12.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.11
BlocksContext
3.11
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
76%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
366
PassesContext
383
294
Accurate passesContext
315
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.10
FoulsContext
13.80
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km585 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 585 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tomasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
5C. Yüksel
29A. Makoumbou
7A. Musaba
21C. Holse
11E. Kılınç
9Marius
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
1E. Canpolat(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
18M. Buljubasic
6G. Papanikolaou
20Q. Laçi
50L. Augusto
15V. Jurečka
19J. Rak-Sakyi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Rizespor-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rizespor · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 H | W 5–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Samsunspor wins0 draws2 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 22 Feb 2025Samsunspor2–3Rizespor
- 22 Sep 2024Rizespor0–1Samsunspor
- 23 Feb 2024Samsunspor3–0Rizespor
- 8 Oct 2023Rizespor1–0Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.56 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Samsunspor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.56 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 2.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.86 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 4.67 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Samsunspor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 8.76 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.40 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 4.74
Red cards0.14league 0.28
Cards 5+29%league 56%
Fouls27.6league 26.4
Penalties0.57league 0.28
Home wins43%league 38%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor9 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Rizespor9 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
