Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 6 · 15:30
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
Santa Clara were slight favourites.
Santa Clara were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Santa Clara. Santa Clara had 8 days of rest, Rio Ave 8.8 and had to travel 1,503 km.
Away travel1,503 kmRest days8 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Santa Clara54%
Draw25%
Rio Ave21%
Santa Clara49%
Draw25%
Rio Ave26%
Santa Clara54%
Draw25%
Rio Ave21%
Santa Clara47%
Draw27%
Rio Ave26%
Santa Clara54%
Draw25%
Rio Ave21%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 20
Team strength
Santa Clara
Rio Ave
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
29
AttackIn forecast
18
53
DefenceIn forecast
21
59
Form indexContext
32
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraRio Ave
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.51
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
100%
Scored inContext
25%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.50
ShotsContext
7.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
26%
On target shareContext
21%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
3.00
63%
Box shareContext
35%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.33
8.50
Shots allowedContext
14.75
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
1.50
BlocksContext
3.25
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
75%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
332
PassesContext
359
255
Accurate passesContext
291
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.00
FoulsContext
7.75
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
9.20
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
24%
On target shareContext
32%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
59%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.60
Shots allowedContext
14.20
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
1.80
BlocksContext
3.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
79%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
345
PassesContext
366
272
Accurate passesContext
295
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.60
FoulsContext
9.50
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
DWWD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,909 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 59 · 8 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Rio Ave
LLWL
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,503 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 32 · 3 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 8.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,503 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,909 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
8José Tavares
6Pedro Ferreira
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
20Tiago Ribeiro
70Vinícius Lopes
9Gonçalo Paciência
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
17M. Vrousai
39Gustavo Mancha
23F. Petrasso
54G. Liavas
5A. Ntoi
44T. Nikitscher
77D. Špikić
11Jalen Blesa
7Diogo Bezerra
9Tamble Monteiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rio Ave · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Santa Clara wins2 draws3 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.17
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 11 Apr 2026Santa Clara0–2Rio Ave
- 30 Nov 2025Rio Ave1–1Santa Clara
- 18 Apr 2025Rio Ave1–1Santa Clara
- 7 Dec 2024Santa Clara1–0Rio Ave
- 17 Mar 2023Santa Clara0–2Rio Ave
- 2 Oct 2022Rio Ave1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Santa Clara | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.25 | 8.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 2.50 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Santa Clara | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.55 | 8.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.70 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.92
Red cards0.10league 0.16
Cards 5+40%league 37%
Fouls26.4league 25.4
Penalties0.40league 0.32
Home wins45%league 42%
Santa Clara2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D1 Mar 26A · Tondela2–22
- W25 Oct 24H · GIL Vicente2–13
Rio Ave2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Apr 26H · Alverca1–22
- L19 Sep 25H · FC Porto0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Rio Ave4 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
