Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 20 · 18:00
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
It was too close to call.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Santa Clara. Santa Clara had 7 days of rest, SC Braga 5.9 and had to travel 1,533 km.
Away travel1,533 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Santa Clara33%
Draw26%
SC Braga40%
Santa Clara28%
Draw25%
SC Braga47%
Santa Clara33%
Draw26%
SC Braga40%
Santa Clara27%
Draw25%
SC Braga48%
Santa Clara34%
Draw27%
SC Braga39%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
RefereeFábio Veríssimo
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 63
Team strength
Santa Clara
SC Braga
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
29
AttackIn forecast
41
53
DefenceIn forecast
59
84
Form indexContext
60
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraSC Braga
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.23
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.67
ShotsContext
12.80
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
31%
On target shareContext
38%
9.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
67%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.80
8.17
Shots allowedContext
8.20
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
1.67
BlocksContext
2.20
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.60
80%
Save rateContext
62%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
353
PassesContext
600
279
Accurate passesContext
516
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.33
FoulsContext
13.80
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.80
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
26%
On target shareContext
36%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
64%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.11
8.70
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.00
BlocksContext
3.11
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
79%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
343
PassesContext
532
273
Accurate passesContext
453
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.10
FoulsContext
12.80
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
WWDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +6.0 vs expected
SC Braga
DWWLW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,533 km637 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 60 · 10 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,533 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,074 km | 637 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.1 | 19.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
44A. Bajrami
6Vitor Carvalho
37A. Barišić
77Gabri Martínez
29J. Gorby
8João Moutinho
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
17J. Milošević
10Pau Víctor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
SC Braga · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Santa Clara wins1 draws4 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 26 Apr 2026Santa Clara2–1SC Braga
- 15 Dec 2025SC Braga1–0Santa Clara
- 3 May 2025SC Braga1–1Santa Clara
- 22 Dec 2024Santa Clara0–2SC Braga
- 14 May 2023SC Braga5–3Santa Clara
- 5 Jan 2023Santa Clara0–4SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 6.80 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 4.60 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Santa Clara | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 7.50 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 5.00 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fábio Veríssimo 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.60league 4.03
Red cards0.27league 0.20
Cards 5+71%league 42%
Fouls27.8league 24.8
Penalties0.37league 0.34
Home wins33%league 39%
Santa Clara4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.3.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L4 Nov 24A · Nacional0–27
- L16 Aug 24H · FC Porto0–24
- L21 Jan 23H · Benfica0–31
- L28 Aug 22A · Famalicao0–13
SC Braga8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Mar 25A · Rio Ave1–25
- D1 Sep 24A · GIL Vicente0–01
- W11 May 24A · Guimaraes3–23
- W13 Apr 24A · Estoril1–01
- D9 Mar 24A · Rio Ave0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
SC Braga4 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
