Sassuolo vs Fiorentina – 6 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 6 · 14:00 MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

Sassuolo 10th · 17 pts · 13 played WLWDL

3–1Full time

Fiorentina 19th · 6 pts · 13 played LLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fiorentina were slight favourites.

Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 26). Sassuolo had 7.8 days of rest, Fiorentina 5.9 and had to travel 113 km.

Away travel113 kmRest days7.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sassuolo31%

Draw28%

Fiorentina41%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.34

Sassuolo31%

Draw27%

Fiorentina42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.45

Sassuolo31%

Draw29%

Fiorentina41%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.33

Sassuolo25%

Draw27%

Fiorentina48%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.50

Sassuolo31%

Draw27%

Fiorentina42%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.46

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Reggio Emilia)

No weather data yet

RefereeLuca Pairetto

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 64

Team strength

Sassuolo

Fiorentina

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

41 AttackIn forecast 42

32 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fiorentina

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sassuolo

Fiorentina

1.23 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.77

1.23 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.62

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

69% Scored inContext 62%

31% Clean sheetsContext 15%

10.85 ShotsContext 11.46

3.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.69

36% On target shareContext 24%

6.85 Shots in the boxContext 7.31

63% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.18 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.46 Shots allowedContext 13.23

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.23

3.08 BlocksContext 3.08

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.54

75% Save rateContext 68%

46% PossessionIn forecast 50%

386 PassesContext 382

317 Accurate passesContext 313

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.71

12.23 FoulsContext 13.31

13.92 Fouls sufferedContext 16.92

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.31

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.56

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

70% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.50 ShotsContext 11.80

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

35% On target shareContext 30%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

63% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.13

13.80 Shots allowedContext 13.50

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.80 BlocksContext 3.78

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

78% Save rateContext 68%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

375 PassesContext 414

305 Accurate passesContext 343

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.10 FoulsContext 11.90

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sassuolo

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km346 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fiorentina

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel113 km494 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Nov	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	346 km	494 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

90I. Koné 18N. Matić 42K. Thorstvedt

45A. Laurienté 99A. Pinamonti 7C. Volpato

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Fiorentina Confirmed XI

3-5-2

43David de Gea(G)

6L. Ranieri 18Pablo Marí 15P. Comuzzo

65F. Parisi 7S. Sohm 44N. Fagioli 8R. Mandragora 2Dodô

10A. Guðmundsson 20M. Kean

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sassuolo Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fiorentina Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sassuolo+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Fiorentina+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Sassuolo · Home 1.17points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.33

Fiorentina · Away 0.57points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 0-4-3
Scored: 0.57
Conceded: 1.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Sassuolo	Fiorentina
Como	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Pisa	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
Atalanta	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 A
Genoa	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Cagliari	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 A
AS Roma	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Lecce	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 H
Inter	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 A
Napoli	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 H
Points	8 of 27 · 0.89 per game	3 of 27 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Sassuolo wins1 draws3 Fiorentina wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.17 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%

28 Apr 2024Fiorentina5–1Sassuolo
6 Jan 2024Sassuolo1–0Fiorentina
2 Jun 2023Sassuolo1–3Fiorentina
7 Jan 2023Fiorentina2–1Sassuolo
26 Feb 2022Sassuolo2–1Fiorentina
19 Dec 2021Fiorentina2–2Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.23	0.77
Conceded per game	1.23	1.62
Match goals	2.46	2.38	2.47
Over 1.5	69%	77%
Over 2.5	54%	54%	45%
Over 3.5	23%	23%
Both teams scored	46%	62%	51%
Clean sheets	31%	15%
Failed to score	31%	38%
Games	13	13

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	2.40	2.50	2.47
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	45%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	3.15	4.62
Corners conceded	4.69	4.31
Match total	7.84	8.93	8.83
Over 8.5	54% 7/13	62% 8/13
Over 9.5	38% 5/13	54% 7/13
Over 10.5	8% 1/13	23% 3/13
Cards
Cards	2.46	2.38
Opponent cards	2.15	2.00
Match total	4.61	4.38	4.03
Over 3.5	69% 9/13	69% 9/13
Over 4.5	31% 4/13	54% 7/13

	Sassuolo	Fiorentina	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	5.00
Corners conceded	4.70	3.50
Match total	8.00	8.50	8.83
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	4.30	5.10	4.03
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luca Pairetto 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.48league 3.92

Red cards0.23league 0.13

Cards 5+52%league 38%

Fouls25.7league 26.0

Penalties0.38league 0.32

Home wins36%league 38%

Sassuolo5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against4 · 2

W30 Oct 25A · Cagliari2–14
L15 Jan 23H · Lazio0–25
D4 Sep 22A · Cremonese0–01
W6 Mar 22A · Venezia4–11
L2 Oct 21H · Inter1–24

Fiorentina6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 4 Reds1

W6 Oct 24H · AC Milan2–12
D18 Feb 24A · Empoli1–12
D14 Jan 24H · Udinese2–21
W17 Sep 23H · Atalanta3–21
L5 Feb 23H · Bologna1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.