Sassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sassuolo were slight favourites.
Sassuolo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 17). Sassuolo had 15.3 days of rest, Pisa 17 and had to travel 112 km.
Away travel112 kmRest days15.3 · 17Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sassuolo51%
Draw27%
Pisa22%
Sassuolo53%
Draw25%
Pisa22%
Sassuolo51%
Draw27%
Pisa22%
Sassuolo44%
Draw29%
Pisa27%
Sassuolo53%
Draw25%
Pisa22%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Reggio Emilia)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Di Marco
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Sassuolo
Pisa
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
41
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SassuoloPisa
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.73
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
73%
Scored inContext
45%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
9.91
ShotsContext
9.73
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
25%
6.18
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
62%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.44
13.45
Shots allowedContext
15.55
4.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
3.27
BlocksContext
4.70
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
76%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
378
PassesContext
308
308
Accurate passesContext
236
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.00
FoulsContext
13.00
14.64
Fouls sufferedContext
12.45
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.82
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
80%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.20
ShotsContext
9.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
36%
On target shareContext
26%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
64%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.38
13.50
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.10
BlocksContext
4.89
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
78%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
379
PassesContext
310
308
Accurate passesContext
239
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.60
FoulsContext
13.30
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sassuolo
Rest15.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest17 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel112 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sassuolo |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.3Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 17Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 112 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
5F. Candé
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
42K. Thorstvedt
20A. Fadera
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
3S. Angori
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
7M. Léris
20M. Aebischer
36G. Piccinini
15I. Touré
18M. Nzola
10M. Tramoni
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sassuolo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sassuolo+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Pisa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sassuolo · Home
1.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.20
Pisa · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Sassuolo | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Udinese | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lazio | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cremonese | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 12 of 21 · 1.71 per game | 6 of 21 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sassuolo | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 0.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 45% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 36% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 36% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 55% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Sassuolo | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sassuolo | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.09 | 3.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.36 | |
| Match total | 8.09 | 8.54 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 9% 1/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.64 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 4.82 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Sassuolo | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.00 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Di Marco Italy · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.25league 3.89
Red cards0.25league 0.13
Cards 5+0%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 26.0
Penalties1.00league 0.31
Home wins50%league 36%
SassuoloNo previous matches with this referee.
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sassuolo11 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
6
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Pisa11 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
