Sevilla vs Alaves – 14 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 24 Sat, Feb 14 · 17:30 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 14th · 25 pts · 23 played LDWLD

1–1Full time

Alaves 15th · 25 pts · 23 played LLWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Sevilla had 6.1 days of rest, Alaves 6.2 and had to travel 669 km.

Away travel669 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Sevilla39%

Draw26%

Alaves34%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.35

Sevilla42%

Draw27%

Alaves31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

Sevilla38%

Draw27%

Alaves35%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.34

Sevilla32%

Draw26%

Alaves42%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.52

Sevilla39%

Draw26%

Alaves35%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.43

Over 2.5 53% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 12

Team strength

Sevilla

Alaves

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

48 AttackIn forecast 48

57 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sevilla

Alaves

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.87

1.65 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.26

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

78% Scored inContext 61%

17% Clean sheetsContext 13%

11.48 ShotsContext 11.39

3.96 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 34%

7.65 Shots in the boxContext 7.36

65% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 8%

3.44 OffsidesContext 2.83

10.74 Shots allowedContext 12.35

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

3.50 BlocksContext 4.10

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.59

69% Save rateContext 66%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

423 PassesContext 423

349 Accurate passesContext 342

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.57 FoulsContext 14.91

13.22 Fouls sufferedContext 13.96

2.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.04

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.10 ShotsContext 11.70

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

39% On target shareContext 37%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

64% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.88

10.60 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.88 BlocksContext 4.30

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

64% Save rateContext 61%

56% PossessionIn forecast 49%

431 PassesContext 412

356 Accurate passesContext 331

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.71

14.10 FoulsContext 14.10

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,577 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel669 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	669 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,577 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	9.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

4Kike Salas 6N. Gudelj 5T. Nianzou

12G. Suazo 20M. Sow 18L. Agoumé 16Juanlu Sánchez 3César Azpilicueta

9A. Adams 17N. Maupay

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

3Youssef Lekhedim 5Jon Pacheco 2F. Garcés 14F. Tenaglia

10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 4Denis Suárez 20Calebe

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+0.8 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Alaves-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.17points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-6
Scored: 1.42
Conceded: 1.50

Alaves · Away 0.64points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-8
Scored: 0.55
Conceded: 1.45

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Alaves
Girona	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	L 0–1 A
Mallorca	L 1–4 AL 1–3 H	L 0–1 A
Athletic Club	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	W 1–0 A
Elche	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Levante	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Oviedo	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 H
Valencia	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Real Betis	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Espanyol	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Real Sociedad	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Barcelona	W 4–1 H	L 1–3 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Villarreal	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Getafe	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Points	22 of 66 · 1.00 per game	25 of 66 · 1.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Sevilla wins3 draws3 Alaves wins

Goals per game1.56 – 1.56 Over 2.567% Both scored78% Clean sheets22% · 11%

20 Sep 2025Alaves1–2Sevilla
20 Apr 2025Sevilla1–1Alaves
20 Sep 2024Alaves2–1Sevilla
12 Jan 2024Sevilla2–3Alaves
21 Aug 2023Alaves4–3Sevilla
4 Mar 2022Alaves0–0Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.87
Conceded per game	1.65	1.26
Match goals	2.96	2.13	2.81
Over 1.5	87%	61%
Over 2.5	65%	43%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	13%
Both teams scored	61%	52%	58%
Clean sheets	17%	13%
Failed to score	22%	39%
Games	23	23

	Sevilla	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	0.90
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	2.80	2.60	2.81
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.26	5.10
Corners conceded	4.83	4.57
Match total	10.09	9.67	9.58
Over 8.5	65% 15/23	62% 13/21
Over 9.5	65% 15/23	48% 10/21
Over 10.5	43% 10/23	43% 9/21
Cards
Cards	2.91	2.13
Opponent cards	2.22	2.09
Match total	5.13	4.22	4.42
Over 3.5	70% 16/23	65% 15/23
Over 4.5	61% 14/23	43% 10/23

	Sevilla	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.78
Match total	9.30	9.78	9.58
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.90
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	5.20	3.70	4.42
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.92league 4.16

Red cards0.25league 0.27

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls27.6league 24.6

Penalties0.33league 0.36

Home wins25%league 47%

Sevilla2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 1

L4 Jan 26H · Levante0–33
W20 Sep 25A · Alaves2–17

Alaves2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D20 Oct 25H · Valencia0–01
L20 Sep 25H · Sevilla1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.