Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 42). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Sevilla had 4.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 7.1 and had to travel 703 km.
Away travel703 kmRest days4.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Sevilla35%
Draw28%
Athletic Club37%
Sevilla32%
Draw27%
Athletic Club40%
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Athletic Club39%
Sevilla29%
Draw28%
Athletic Club44%
Sevilla35%
Draw27%
Athletic Club38%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 28
Team strength
Sevilla
Athletic Club
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
48
AttackIn forecast
51
57
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaAthletic Club
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
75%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.35
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.39
65%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
3.40
OffsidesContext
1.91
10.35
Shots allowedContext
9.75
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.47
BlocksContext
2.53
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
71%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
419
PassesContext
414
345
Accurate passesContext
337
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.75
FoulsContext
11.95
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.95
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.40
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
63%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.60
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.50
BlocksContext
2.10
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
65%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
428
PassesContext
372
355
Accurate passesContext
288
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.10
FoulsContext
14.70
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel703 km1,240 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Jan | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 703 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 946 km | 1,240 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
6N. Gudelj
2J. Carmona Navarro
16Juanlu Sánchez
14Peque Fernández
18L. Agoumé
20M. Sow
7Isaac Romero
9A. Adams
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
12Jesús Areso
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
7Álex Berenguer
8Oihan Sancet
23Robert Navarro
25Urko Izeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+2.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Athletic Club-2.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-6
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.60
Athletic Club · Away
0.80points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-6
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Levante | L 0–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Oviedo | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 H | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Barcelona | W 4–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alaves | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Girona | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 21 of 57 · 1.11 per game | 21 of 57 · 1.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Sevilla wins2 draws5 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.10
Over 2.510%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets30% · 40%
- 17 Aug 2025Athletic Club3–2Sevilla
- 16 Mar 2025Sevilla0–1Athletic Club
- 29 Sep 2024Athletic Club1–1Sevilla
- 19 May 2024Athletic Club2–0Sevilla
- 4 Jan 2024Sevilla0–2Athletic Club
- 27 Apr 2023Athletic Club0–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.35 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 40% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Sevilla | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.15 | 5.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 4.05 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.60 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 12/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.05 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.35 | 4.35 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 15/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 65% 13/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Sevilla | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.80 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 4.60 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.20
Red cards0.11league 0.28
Cards 5+43%league 48%
Fouls23.5league 24.5
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins39%league 47%
Sevilla3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 Aug 25A · Athletic Club2–32
- L17 Mar 24H · Celta Vigo1–24
- W5 Feb 24A · Rayo Vallecano2–13
Athletic Club1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 Aug 25H · Sevilla3–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla20 games · scored 26 · conceded 32
3
2
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
7
11
76-90
Athletic Club19 games · scored 19 · conceded 26
3
4
0-15
1
16-30
6
6
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
8
76-90
Athletic Club9 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
