Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sevilla were slight favourites.
Sevilla were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 37). Sevilla had 13.1 days of rest, Elche 14.1 and had to travel 473 km.
Away travel473 kmRest days13.1 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Sevilla48%
Draw27%
Elche26%
Sevilla49%
Draw26%
Elche25%
Sevilla48%
Draw27%
Elche26%
Sevilla40%
Draw28%
Elche32%
Sevilla49%
Draw26%
Elche25%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 22
Team strength
Sevilla
Elche
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
48
AttackIn forecast
39
57
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaElche
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.81
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.33
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
75%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
6.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.67
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
6.00
BlocksContext
3.00
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
90%
Save rateContext
82%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
439
PassesContext
549
363
Accurate passesContext
481
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.00
FoulsContext
11.33
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.10
ShotsContext
12.60
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
34%
On target shareContext
33%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
71%
Box shareContext
77%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.86
11.60
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.70
BlocksContext
4.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
63%
Save rateContext
80%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
404
PassesContext
465
332
Accurate passesContext
386
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.03
13.40
FoulsContext
12.30
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,819 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Elche
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel473 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.1La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 14.1La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 473 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,819 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
13Ø. Nyland(G)
23Marcão
5T. Nianzou
3César Azpilicueta
17Alfon González
19B. Mendy
6N. Gudelj
16Juanlu Sánchez
18L. Agoumé
11R. Vargas
7Isaac Romero
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
3Adrià Pedrosa
16Martim Neto
14Aleix Febas
35Ali Houary
15Alvaro Núñez
9André Silva
10Rafa Mir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Elche+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Elche · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Sevilla wins2 draws1 Elche wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 24 May 2023Elche1–1Sevilla
- 28 Jan 2023Sevilla3–0Elche
- 11 Feb 2022Sevilla2–0Elche
- 28 Aug 2021Elche1–1Sevilla
- 17 Mar 2021Sevilla2–0Elche
- 6 Mar 2021Elche2–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Sevilla | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 7.33 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 3.00 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Sevilla | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 11.90 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.80 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.05league 3.39
Red cards0.18league 0.23
Cards 5+18%league 29%
Fouls24.5league 23.5
Penalties0.23league 0.32
Home wins45%league 45%
Sevilla2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 May 25A · Villarreal2–41
- L9 Dec 23A · Mallorca0–12
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Elche3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
