Sevilla vs Osasuna – 8 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 8 · 15:15 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 13th · 13 pts · 11 played WWLLL

1–0Full time

Osasuna 15th · 11 pts · 11 played LWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sevilla were slight favourites.

Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Osasuna. Sevilla had 7 days of rest, Osasuna 4.8 and had to travel 707 km.

Away travel707 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Sevilla41%

Draw28%

Osasuna31%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.15

Sevilla40%

Draw27%

Osasuna33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Sevilla40%

Draw28%

Osasuna32%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.17

Sevilla34%

Draw28%

Osasuna38%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.29

Sevilla41%

Draw27%

Osasuna32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 31

Team strength

Sevilla

Osasuna

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

48 AttackIn forecast 50

57 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sevilla

Osasuna

1.55 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.82

1.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.09

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.68 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

91% Scored inContext 55%

18% Clean sheetsContext 27%

10.27 ShotsContext 9.64

3.09 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

30% On target shareContext 34%

7.09 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

65% Box shareContext 69%

15% ConversionContext 9%

4.14 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.36 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.82 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.73

4.38 BlocksContext 3.30

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.64

73% Save rateContext 77%

53% PossessionIn forecast 46%

421 PassesContext 394

345 Accurate passesContext 318

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.89

15.09 FoulsContext 12.36

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.18

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.82

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.63 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

90% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.10 ShotsContext 10.40

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

28% On target shareContext 35%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

63% Box shareContext 69%

15% ConversionContext 9%

3.50 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.10 Shots allowedContext 12.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.86 BlocksContext 3.00

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

73% Save rateContext 77%

53% PossessionIn forecast 48%

415 PassesContext 403

340 Accurate passesContext 327

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.90

15.40 FoulsContext 12.40

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Osasuna

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel707 km693 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	4.8La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	707 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	781 km	693 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	16.2	14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

12G. Suazo 23Marcão 5T. Nianzou 2J. Carmona Navarro

19B. Mendy 20M. Sow

14Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas 16Juanlu Sánchez

9A. Adams

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Osasuna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Sergio Herrera(G)

23Abel Bretones 24Catena 22F. Boyomo 7Moncayola

16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz

11Kike Barja 14Rubén García 21Víctor Muñoz

9Raúl García

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Osasuna Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+0.9 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Osasuna-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 2.00

Osasuna · Away 0.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-5
Scored: 0.17
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Osasuna
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 H
Villarreal	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 A
Elche	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Getafe	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 H
Points	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Sevilla wins4 draws3 Osasuna wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.80 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 30%

24 Apr 2025Osasuna1–0Sevilla
2 Dec 2024Sevilla1–1Osasuna
28 Jan 2024Sevilla1–1Osasuna
23 Sep 2023Osasuna0–0Sevilla
26 Feb 2023Sevilla2–3Osasuna
12 Aug 2022Osasuna2–1Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.55	0.82
Conceded per game	1.73	1.09
Match goals	3.27	1.91	2.49
Over 1.5	91%	55%
Over 2.5	82%	27%	45%
Over 3.5	36%	9%
Both teams scored	73%	36%	51%
Clean sheets	18%	27%
Failed to score	9%	45%
Games	11	11

	Sevilla	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	3.10	2.00	2.49
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	30%	45%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.55	3.00
Corners conceded	5.64	3.89
Match total	10.19	6.89	9.63
Over 8.5	64% 7/11	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	64% 7/11	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	55% 6/11	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.82	1.91
Match total	4.82	3.91	4.24
Over 3.5	64% 7/11	73% 8/11
Over 4.5	55% 6/11	55% 6/11

	Sevilla	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	3.00
Corners conceded	5.20	3.89
Match total	10.10	6.89	9.63
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	11% 1/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	3.10	2.10
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	5.10	4.10	4.24
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.58league 3.98

Red cards0.29league 0.26

Cards 5+45%league 43%

Fouls23.4league 24.7

Penalties0.23league 0.36

Home wins35%league 48%

Sevilla5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W30 Aug 25A · Girona2–01
D20 Apr 25H · Alaves1–12
L15 May 24H · Cadiz0–16
L26 Nov 23A · Real Sociedad1–23
L29 Sep 23A · Barcelona0–13

Osasuna2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D11 May 25A · Real Betis1–12
L3 Sep 23H · Barcelona1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.