Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Sevilla had 4 days of rest, Real Madrid 2.9 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days4 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Sevilla24%
Draw27%
Real Madrid49%
Sevilla17%
Draw22%
Real Madrid61%
Sevilla23%
Draw27%
Real Madrid51%
Sevilla19%
Draw25%
Real Madrid56%
Sevilla24%
Draw26%
Real Madrid50%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 60
Team strength
Sevilla
Real Madrid
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
48
AttackIn forecast
89
57
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaReal Madrid
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.92
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
78%
Scored inContext
89%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.31
ShotsContext
17.31
3.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.61
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.94
63%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
3.10
OffsidesContext
2.28
10.08
Shots allowedContext
10.36
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.34
3.17
BlocksContext
3.27
3.03
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.42
66%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
399
PassesContext
575
324
Accurate passesContext
517
81%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.10
14.22
FoulsContext
10.19
12.44
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.69
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.90
ShotsContext
16.20
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
23%
On target shareContext
42%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
60%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.30
9.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.44
BlocksContext
3.90
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
55%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
339
PassesContext
514
263
Accurate passesContext
457
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.90
FoulsContext
9.90
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Real Madrid
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel390 km2,003 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May | 2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 14 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,167 km | 2,003 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
12G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
32A. López Gallo
2J. Carmona Navarro
36Oso
20M. Sow
6N. Gudelj
11R. Vargas
17N. Maupay
9A. Adams
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
20Fran García
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
2Dani Carvajal
45Thiago Pitarch
14A. Tchouaméni
5J. Bellingham
7Vinícius
10K. Mbappé
21Brahim Díaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+1.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Real Madrid-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.39points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-7
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Real Madrid · Away
1.89points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-4-4
- Scored
- 1.72
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | W 3–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–5 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AW 5–1 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 43 of 105 · 1.23 per game | 77 of 105 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Sevilla wins2 draws8 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 20 Dec 2025Real Madrid2–0Sevilla
- 18 May 2025Sevilla0–2Real Madrid
- 22 Dec 2024Real Madrid4–2Sevilla
- 25 Feb 2024Real Madrid1–0Sevilla
- 21 Oct 2023Sevilla1–1Real Madrid
- 27 May 2023Sevilla1–2Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 0.92 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.92 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 56% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 11% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Sevilla | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.94 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 3.91 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.21 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 20/35 | 76% 25/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 49% 17/35 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 12/35 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.47 | |
| Match total | 5.08 | 4.39 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 25/36 | 50% 18/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 20/36 | 42% 15/36 | |
| Sevilla | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 11.60 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.30 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 4.29
Red cards0.32league 0.27
Cards 5+48%league 47%
Fouls25.0league 24.5
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins52%league 48%
Sevilla5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L23 Apr 26A · Levante0–23
- L12 Jan 26H · Celta Vigo0–13
- D28 Apr 24A · Real Betis1–15
- L4 Jan 24H · Athletic Club0–23
- L11 Aug 23H · Valencia1–24
Real Madrid7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Apr 26A · Mallorca1–22
- W30 Aug 25H · Mallorca2–12
- W23 Apr 25A · Getafe1–01
- W13 Apr 24A · Mallorca1–01
- D4 Feb 24H · Atletico Madrid1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla36 games · scored 46 · conceded 58
5
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
9
14
31-45
8
11
46-60
7
6
61-75
12
15
76-90
Real Madrid36 games · scored 72 · conceded 33
5
2
0-15
10
4
16-30
15
7
31-45
14
6
46-60
10
6
61-75
18
8
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
