Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sevilla were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sevilla. Sevilla had 5 days of rest, Valencia 5.2 and had to travel 540 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel540 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sevilla47%
Draw26%
Valencia28%
Sevilla41%
Draw26%
Valencia33%
Sevilla45%
Draw26%
Valencia29%
Sevilla39%
Draw26%
Valencia34%
Sevilla47%
Draw25%
Valencia28%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
Warm
32°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 20%
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 43
Team strength
Sevilla
Valencia
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
48
AttackIn forecast
39
57
DefenceIn forecast
52
69
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaValencia
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.74
Goals minus xGContext
-0.69
100%
Scored inContext
25%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.75
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
35%
On target shareContext
28%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
58%
Box shareContext
57%
15%
ConversionContext
3%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.33
BlocksContext
3.25
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
63%
Save rateContext
65%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
322
PassesContext
423
243
Accurate passesContext
350
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.64
16.75
FoulsContext
9.75
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
32%
On target shareContext
29%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
50%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.50
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.67
BlocksContext
3.13
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
66%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
348
PassesContext
387
273
Accurate passesContext
313
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
15.90
FoulsContext
10.50
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
WWLD
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,641 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Valencia
DLLL
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel540 km1,592 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 21 · 1 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 5.2La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 540 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,641 km | 1,592 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
5A. López Gallo
2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana
6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia
16Isaac Romero
30Miguel Sierra
19L. Stassin
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
18Pepelu
5César Tárrega
22Arnau Martínez
39R. Sato
23F. Ugrinic
15A. Dieng
27David Otorbi
8Javi Guerra
7A. Danjuma
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Valencia-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Valencia · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
2 Sevilla wins5 draws3 Valencia wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 21 Mar 2026Sevilla0–2Valencia
- 7 Dec 2025Valencia1–1Sevilla
- 11 Apr 2025Valencia1–0Sevilla
- 11 Jan 2025Sevilla1–1Valencia
- 17 Feb 2024Valencia0–0Sevilla
- 11 Aug 2023Sevilla1–2Valencia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Sevilla | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 7.00 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 3.75 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Sevilla | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.30 | 8.40 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.90 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.35league 4.32
Red cards0.35league 0.27
Cards 5+67%league 49%
Fouls24.2league 24.7
Penalties0.28league 0.32
Home wins40%league 49%
Sevilla6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W13 May 26A · Villarreal3–21
- W22 Feb 26A · Getafe1–01
- L18 May 25H · Real Madrid0–22
- W5 May 24H · Granada CF3–02
- W2 Mar 24H · Real Sociedad3–21
Valencia3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L1 Nov 25A · Real Madrid0–41
- L20 Apr 24H · Real Betis1–22
- D23 Sep 23A · Almeria2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla4 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Valencia4 games · scored 1 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
