Shamrock Rovers
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 28 · 20:00
Tallaght Stadium, Dublin
Shamrock Rovers
20th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–2
2–1Full time
Ararat-Armenia
4th · 6 pts · 3 played
WLW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel4,034 kmRest days7.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Shamrock Rovers—%
Draw—%
Ararat-Armenia—%
Weather (Dublin)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 86
Team strength
Shamrock RoversArarat-Armenia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
11
Current StrengthIn forecast
7
13
AttackIn forecast
8
12
DefenceIn forecast
8
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArarat-Armenia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Shamrock RoversArarat-Armenia
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
33%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
67%
On target shareContext
50%
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
24%
ConversionContext
33%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.43
ShotsContext
12.00
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
52%
On target shareContext
36%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
—
65%
Box shareContext
—
16%
ConversionContext
14%
3.20
OffsidesContext
—
15.14
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
5.17
BlocksContext
—
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
59%
Save rateContext
56%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
328
PassesContext
—
258
Accurate passesContext
—
79%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.48
9.00
FoulsContext
—
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Shamrock Rovers
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km8,069 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Ararat-Armenia
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel4,034 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Shamrock Rovers |
Ararat-Armenia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul | 7.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 4,034 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 8,069 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Shamrock Rovers
Confirmed XI
1E. McGinty(G)
5L. Grace
4R. Lopes
11J. Mulraney
19A. Brennan
29J. Byrne
8M. Healy
7D. Watts
22T. Sobowale
10G. Burke
9A. Greene
Ararat-Armenia
Confirmed XI
98João Bravim(G)
47A. Malis
43Bruno Wilson
3J. Julio
16E. Grigoryan
19K. Muradyan
17M. Carlier
2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui
91Sandro Lima
77A. Serobyan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Shamrock Rovers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ararat-Armenia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Shamrock Rovers · Home
No home games yet this season.
Ararat-Armenia · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Shamrock Rovers wins0 draws1 Ararat-Armenia wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 21 Jul 2026Ararat-Armenia2–0Shamrock Rovers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Shamrock Rovers | Ararat-Armenia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
| Shamrock Rovers | Ararat-Armenia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Shamrock Rovers | Ararat-Armenia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 4.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 5.67 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Shamrock Rovers | Ararat-Armenia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 7.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 86 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 4.17
Red cards0.06league 0.26
Cards 5+30%league 38%
Fouls20.2league 26.3
Penalties0.23league 0.34
Home wins37%league 47%
Shamrock RoversNo previous matches with this referee.
Ararat-ArmeniaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Shamrock Rovers3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Ararat-Armenia3 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Shamrock Rovers10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.