Slovan Bratislava
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Jul 29 · 19:15
Štadión Tehelné pole, Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava
7th · 3 pts · 1 played
W
First leg2–0
1–1Full time
Saburtalo
22nd · 0 pts · 1 played
L
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,284 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Slovan Bratislava—%
Draw—%
Saburtalo—%
Weather (Bratislava)
No weather data yet
Referee · AustriaChristian-Petru Ciochirca
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 15
Team strength
Slovan BratislavaSaburtalo
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
6
18
AttackIn forecast
7
22
DefenceIn forecast
7
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSaburtalo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Slovan BratislavaSaburtalo
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
67%
—
Clean sheetsContext
0%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
56%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.78
ShotsContext
—
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
31%
On target shareContext
—
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
—
66%
Box shareContext
—
8%
ConversionContext
—
1.86
OffsidesContext
—
13.67
Shots allowedContext
—
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.00
BlocksContext
—
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
74%
Save rateContext
—
49%
PossessionIn forecast
—
437
PassesContext
—
356
Accurate passesContext
—
81%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.90
Team ratingContext
—
13.00
FoulsContext
—
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.78
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.11
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Slovan Bratislava
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,567 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Saburtalo
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,284 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Slovan Bratislava |
Saburtalo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul | 8.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 21 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,284 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,567 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Slovan Bratislava
Confirmed XI
1A. Popović(G)
57Sandro Cruz
15S. Marković
12K. Bajrič
28C. Blackman
8A. Gajdoš
3P. Pokorný
70C. Martinez
14A. Yirajang
9M. Kukharevych
29A. Maroš
Saburtalo
Confirmed XI
31G. Makaridze(G)
40G. Kobuladze
25A. Amisulashvili
4V. Selimović
5J. Jinjolava
6N. Dadiani
8B. Kardava
27G. Kutsia
19N. Sikharulashvili
10Zviad Natchkebia
18Lucas Brune
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Slovan Bratislava
Absences are shown before kick-off
Saburtalo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Slovan Bratislava · Home
No home games yet this season.
Saburtalo · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Slovan Bratislava wins0 draws0 Saburtalo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 21 Jul 2026Saburtalo0–2Slovan Bratislava
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Slovan Bratislava | Saburtalo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Slovan Bratislava | Saburtalo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Slovan Bratislava | Saburtalo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.66 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Slovan Bratislava | Saburtalo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | — | |
| Match total | 11.00 | — | 10.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.56 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Christian-Petru Ciochirca Austria · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 4.36
Red cards0.20league 0.25
Cards 5+53%league 44%
Fouls21.1league 25.9
Penalties0.33league 0.33
Home wins47%league 49%
Slovan BratislavaNo previous matches with this referee.
SaburtaloNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Slovan Bratislava1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Saburtalo3 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Slovan Bratislava10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Saburtalo9 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.