UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 4 · 19:00 epet ARENA, Praha
Sparta Praha
2–1Full time
Lyon
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel852 kmRest days? · 79Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Sparta Praha—%
Draw—%
Lyon—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Praha)
34°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 7 km/h
  • Humidity 26%
Heat stress
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
  • Cards per match 4.1
  • Penalties per match 0.28
  • Matches 104

Team strength

Sparta PrahaLyon
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 60
33 AttackIn forecast 55
34 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Praha

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta PrahaLyon
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.30
1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37
+0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
60% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.50 ShotsContext 12.20
3.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30
34% On target shareContext 35%
8.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.20
66% Box shareContext 67%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.29 OffsidesContext 2.00
9.25 Shots allowedContext 12.80
3.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70
3.33 BlocksContext 3.88
2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89
78% Save rateContext 78%
57% PossessionIn forecast 52%
473 PassesContext 428
395 Accurate passesContext 363
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.81 Team ratingContext 6.95
11.38 FoulsContext 11.40
9.88 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Praha
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Lyon
Rest79 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel852 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sparta Praha Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match—79Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km852 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Praha Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
44J. Surovčík(G)
11M. Ryneš 25A. Sørensen 19A. Ševínský 2M. Suchomel
18A. Irving 28R. Macek
7J. Alcócer 10A. Karabec 17J. Mercado
14J. Braut Brunes
Lyon Confirmed XI
3-4-3
1D. Greif(G)
21R. Kluivert 6F. Tessmann 22Clinton Mata
76Mohamed Ouédraogo 39Mathys de Carvalho 23T. Morton 98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso 17I. Openda 16Abner

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sparta Praha Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sparta Praha · Home No home games yet this season.
Lyon · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Sparta PrahaLyonForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals ——
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 ——
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored ——
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
Sparta PrahaLyonForecast
Scored per game —1.30
Conceded per game —1.50
Match goals —2.80
Over 1.5 —80%
Over 2.5 —60%
Over 3.5 —30%
Both teams scored —50%
Clean sheets —30%
Failed to score —40%
Games010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sparta PrahaLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——10.19
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——4.88
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
Sparta PrahaLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won5.436.67
Corners conceded3.865.33
Match total9.2912.0010.19
Over 8.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 9.543% 3/744% 4/9
Over 10.529% 2/744% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.301.90
Opponent cards2.303.40
Match total4.605.304.88
Over 3.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 104 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.99league 4.32
Red cards0.12league 0.25
Cards 5+43%league 43%
Fouls23.0league 25.9
Penalties0.28league 0.33
Home wins49%league 50%
Sparta Praha2 with this referee
Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • D15 Aug 23H · FC Copenhagen3–33
  • L20 Jul 21A · Rapid Vienna1–22
Lyon

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Sparta Praha
No complete event data.
Lyon
No complete event data.
Sparta Praha10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 3 76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1 2 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.