Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. Sparta Rotterdam had 83.9 days of rest, Feyenoord 83.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days83.9 · 83.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sparta Rotterdam22%
Draw23%
Feyenoord55%
Sparta Rotterdam25%
Draw25%
Feyenoord50%
Sparta Rotterdam22%
Draw23%
Feyenoord55%
Sparta Rotterdam17%
Draw21%
Feyenoord62%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Draw23%
Feyenoord54%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 65
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Feyenoord
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
32
AttackIn forecast
76
17
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamFeyenoord
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
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Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
—
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
28%
On target shareContext
38%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
61%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.71
15.70
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
4.10
BlocksContext
3.00
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
67%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
393
PassesContext
386
322
Accurate passesContext
308
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.40
FoulsContext
9.70
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest83.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest83.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 83.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May | 83.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1F. Bednarek(G)
5B. Kuipers
4R. Martins Indi
3N. Verschuren
2Lushendry Edward Martes
8J. Toornstra
6M. Young
11A. Santos
10S. Mito
7C. Terho
9N. Þórisson
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
1T. Ernst(G)
35Mika Màrmol
24T. Kraaijeveld
6J. St. Juste
26G. Read
34C. Vanhoutte
8G. Zechiël
27G. Diarra
10L. Valente
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Feyenoord+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
No home games yet this season.
Feyenoord · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Sparta Rotterdam wins2 draws3 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game1.17 – 2.50
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 18 Jan 2026Feyenoord3–4Sparta Rotterdam
- 31 Aug 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–4Feyenoord
- 8 Feb 2025Feyenoord3–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 25 Aug 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–1Feyenoord
- 11 Feb 2024Feyenoord2–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 20 Aug 2023Sparta Rotterdam2–2Feyenoord
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 13.25 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.10 | 13.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 2.00
Red cards0.28league 0.00
Cards 5+32%league 0%
Fouls21.9league 20.2
Penalties0.18league 0.00
Home wins49%league 40%
Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W31 Jan 26H · Groningen2–01
- W12 Apr 25H · Heerenveen3–11
- D11 Aug 24H · Heracles0–01
- W28 Oct 23H · Waalwijk2–03
Feyenoord6 with this referee
Record4-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Feb 26H · Telstar2–11
- D11 Jan 26A · Heerenveen2–20
- W30 Nov 25A · Telstar2–13
- W22 Sep 24H · NAC Breda2–02
- D14 Jan 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta RotterdamFeyenoordSparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
8
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
