Sparta Rotterdam vs GO Ahead Eagles – 3 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 3 · 15:45 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam 10th · 42 pts · 31 played LWDLL

First leg3–0 2–2Full time

GO Ahead Eagles 11th · 37 pts · 31 played WLWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards GO Ahead Eagles. Sparta Rotterdam had 10.9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 9.9 and had to travel 121 km.

Away travel121 kmRest days10.9 · 9.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sparta Rotterdam40%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles34%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.36

Sparta Rotterdam41%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Sparta Rotterdam40%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles34%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.36

Sparta Rotterdam32%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles42%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.52

Sparta Rotterdam39%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles34%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.32

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 15

Team strength

Sparta Rotterdam

GO Ahead Eagles

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

32 AttackIn forecast 29

17 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta Rotterdam

GO Ahead Eagles

1.16 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.61

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.45

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

74% Scored inContext 77%

35% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.29 ShotsContext 11.13

4.42 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.07

36% On target shareContext 44%

7.97 Shots in the boxContext 8.26

67% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 15%

1.74 OffsidesContext 1.84

15.35 Shots allowedContext 18.06

5.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.45

4.32 BlocksContext 6.07

4.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.23

71% Save rateContext 78%

47% PossessionIn forecast 50%

389 PassesContext 408

312 Accurate passesContext 330

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.89

9.45 FoulsContext 8.81

10.48 Fouls sufferedContext 10.32

1.81 Yellow cardsContext 1.42

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.61

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.40

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

34% On target shareContext 43%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

63% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 17%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.20 Shots allowedContext 19.10

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.20 BlocksContext 6.00

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60

67% Save rateContext 84%

50% PossessionIn forecast 47%

407 PassesContext 368

331 Accurate passesContext 287

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.02

11.40 FoulsContext 7.80

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest10.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km122 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest9.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel121 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Rotterdam	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Apr	9.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	121 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	122 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1J. Drommel(G)

5G. Vianello 4T. Quintero 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

10Vito van Crooij 6J. Kitolano 8A. Santos

11S. Mito 9T. Lauritsen 7M. van Bergen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22J. De Busser(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4J. Kramer 26J. Dirksen 2A. Sampsted

7J. Breum 21M. Meulensteen

17M. Suray 16V. Edvardsen 10S. Tengstedt

9S. Sigurðarson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Rotterdam Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GO Ahead Eagles+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-5
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.47

GO Ahead Eagles · Away 0.80points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 2-6-7
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	GO Ahead Eagles
Telstar	L 1–4 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 HL 2–4 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 0–2 HL 1–6 A	L 1–2 A
NAC Breda	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 6–0 HL 0–1 A
FC Volendam	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H
Ajax	L 0–4 AD 3–3 H	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 5–0 HW 2–0 A
Heerenveen	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	L 1–3 HD 2–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–3 AL 0–1 H	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Groningen	W 2–0 HW 2–0 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Utrecht	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Feyenoord	W 4–3 AL 0–4 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Heracles	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A	W 4–0 HL 2–4 A
Twente	L 1–5 H	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A
Excelsior	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Points	39 of 90 · 1.30 per game	37 of 90 · 1.23 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Sparta Rotterdam wins1 draws3 GO Ahead Eagles wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored20% Clean sheets40% · 60%

23 Aug 2025GO Ahead Eagles0–3Sparta Rotterdam
14 Feb 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–0Sparta Rotterdam
15 Sep 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–2GO Ahead Eagles
21 Jan 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2GO Ahead Eagles
22 Oct 2023GO Ahead Eagles0–0Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Rotterdam	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.16	1.61
Conceded per game	1.71	1.45
Match goals	2.87	3.06	2.84
Over 1.5	74%	84%
Over 2.5	48%	58%	54%
Over 3.5	32%	45%
Both teams scored	42%	55%	58%
Clean sheets	35%	29%
Failed to score	26%	23%
Games	31	31

	Sparta Rotterdam	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.80
Conceded per game	1.90	1.00
Match goals	2.80	2.80	2.84
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	20%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Rotterdam	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.79	5.16
Corners conceded	6.34	5.90
Match total	11.13	11.06	10.29
Over 8.5	86% 25/29	84% 26/31
Over 9.5	69% 20/29	68% 21/31
Over 10.5	55% 16/29	55% 17/31
Cards
Cards	1.87	1.55
Opponent cards	2.06	1.52
Match total	3.93	3.07	3.31
Over 3.5	65% 20/31	35% 11/31
Over 4.5	35% 11/31	19% 6/31

	Sparta Rotterdam	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.30
Corners conceded	5.00	7.40
Match total	10.40	11.70	10.29
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.10
Opponent cards	2.30	0.90
Match total	4.20	2.00	3.31
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.14

Red cards0.40league 0.17

Cards 5+33%league 26%

Fouls25.1league 21.2

Penalties0.33league 0.21

Home wins33%league 44%

Sparta Rotterdam1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L28 Feb 26A · Heerenveen1–22

GO Ahead Eagles2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D1 Feb 26A · FC Volendam1–16
D5 Oct 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.