Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam had 6.2 days of rest, Telstar 6.3 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days6.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam41%
Draw27%
Telstar32%
Sparta Rotterdam43%
Draw27%
Telstar30%
Sparta Rotterdam43%
Draw27%
Telstar30%
Sparta Rotterdam34%
Draw28%
Telstar39%
Sparta Rotterdam41%
Draw27%
Telstar32%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 44
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
32
AttackIn forecast
24
17
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamTelstar
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
2.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
78%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
11.78
ShotsContext
14.44
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.56
34%
On target shareContext
39%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
66%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.14
18.00
Shots allowedContext
15.22
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.89
5.00
BlocksContext
4.33
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
59%
Save rateContext
64%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
345
PassesContext
354
269
Accurate passesContext
278
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.88
7.33
FoulsContext
12.56
9.22
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
66%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.25
18.70
Shots allowedContext
15.20
7.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
5.40
BlocksContext
4.50
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
58%
Save rateContext
67%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
337
PassesContext
342
261
Accurate passesContext
265
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.89
7.50
FoulsContext
12.80
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km403 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Telstar
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel61 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 403 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8P. Clement
6J. Baas
11A. Oufkir
10L. Duijvestijn
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
4G. Offerhaus
21D. Koswal
2J. Hardeveld
17N. Rossen
8T. Owusu
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
30K. Tejan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam-2.2 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Telstar+1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 3.25
Telstar · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Ajax | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–0 A | W 4–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–6 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.44 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.89 | 3.33 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.44 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.89 | 3.33 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 56% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 12.25 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.11 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 2.78 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 11.66 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.00 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 3.48
Red cards0.18league 0.20
Cards 5+30%league 35%
Fouls22.5league 22.5
Penalties0.23league 0.24
Home wins50%league 47%
Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L4 May 25H · Twente0–20
- L3 Nov 24H · Utrecht1–42
- L26 Nov 23H · Utrecht1–20
- W12 Aug 23A · PEC Zwolle2–14
TelstarNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam9 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
7
61-75
4
4
76-90
Telstar9 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 14 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
7
61-75
4
5
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
