ST Johnstone
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Wed, Sep 9 · 20:00
McDiarmid Park, Perth
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel78 kmRest days? · 4Matches / 14d0 · 3
Real contextStrength only
ST Johnstone—%
Draw—%
Celtic—%
Weather (Perth)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
ST Johnstone
Celtic
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
7
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
7
AttackIn forecast
74
9
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCeltic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ST JohnstoneCeltic
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
3.50
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.90
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.40
ShotsContext
24.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.60
32%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
17.40
72%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.50
BlocksContext
3.40
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
80%
Save rateContext
83%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
492
PassesContext
635
406
Accurate passesContext
566
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.34
10.40
FoulsContext
10.20
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
2.49
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
70%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
17.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
27%
On target shareContext
39%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
65%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.89
BlocksContext
4.80
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
70%
Save rateContext
72%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
452
PassesContext
589
370
Accurate passesContext
513
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.18
10.90
FoulsContext
11.80
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
ST Johnstone
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celtic
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel78 km23 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| ST Johnstone |
Celtic |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | 4Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 78 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 23 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 86.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
ST Johnstone
Confirmed XI
1T. Steward(G)
2Enes Alić
3C. Diabate
19D. Finlayson
26Matty Todd
42R. McAlear
8J. Holt
7T. Steven
30J. Cotterill
32J. Campbell
9J. Fowler
Celtic
Confirmed XI
26S. Johnstone(G)
5L. Scales
6A. Trusty
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
17S. Tounekti
18O. Sørensen
23H. Hassan
9K. Høgh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences ST Johnstone
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
ST Johnstone · Home
No home games yet this season.
Celtic · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | ST Johnstone | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| ST Mirren | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kilmarnock | W 4–3 H | W 5–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 ST Johnstone wins1 draws4 Celtic wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 6 Apr 2025ST Johnstone1–0Celtic
- 29 Dec 2024Celtic4–0ST Johnstone
- 28 Sep 2024ST Johnstone0–6Celtic
- 16 Mar 2024Celtic3–1ST Johnstone
- 3 Dec 2023ST Johnstone1–3Celtic
- 26 Aug 2023Celtic0–0ST Johnstone
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| ST Johnstone | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% | |
| Failed to score | — | 0% | |
| Games | 0 | 5 |
| ST Johnstone | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% | |
| Failed to score | — | 0% | |
| Games | 0 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| ST Johnstone | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 9.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 14.00 | 11.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| ST Johnstone | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 12.40 | 11.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.00 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
ST Johnstone5 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Celtic5 games · scored 13 · conceded 3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
76-90
ST Johnstone10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.