ST Mirren
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sat, Sep 5 · 20:00
The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel12 kmRest days? · 3Matches / 14d0 · 3
Real contextStrength only
ST Mirren—%
Draw—%
Celtic—%
Weather (Paisley)
No weather data yet
RefereeRyan Lee
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 13
Team strength
ST Mirren
Celtic
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
9
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
8
AttackIn forecast
74
8
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCeltic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ST MirrenCeltic
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.75
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
3.69
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.94
100%
Scored inContext
100%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.25
ShotsContext
24.25
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
10.00
31%
On target shareContext
41%
10.25
Shots in the boxContext
16.75
66%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
12.50
Shots allowedContext
8.75
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.75
BlocksContext
2.50
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
75%
Save rateContext
83%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
431
PassesContext
662
351
Accurate passesContext
596
81%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.12
Team ratingContext
7.41
14.00
FoulsContext
9.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
2.47
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.72
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.75
ShotsContext
18.00
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
38%
On target shareContext
37%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
63%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.25
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.33
BlocksContext
4.56
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
452
PassesContext
607
364
Accurate passesContext
532
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.15
12.25
FoulsContext
11.20
11.63
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
ST Mirren
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celtic
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel12 km3,026 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| ST Mirren |
Celtic |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 33 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | 3Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 2 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 12 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,026 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 76.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
ST Mirren
Confirmed XI
1J. Chapman(G)
3D. John
53H. Fieldson
13A. Gogić
47C. Ramsay
48P. Nsio
8R. Carr
19I. Kabia
30F. Taylor
23C. Mochrie
25N. Agrafiotis
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
5L. Scales
6A. Trusty
20C. Carter-Vickers
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
13H. Yang
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences ST Mirren
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
ST Mirren · Home
No home games yet this season.
Celtic · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | ST Mirren | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | W 1–0 A | W 5–1 A |
| Falkirk | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
0 ST Mirren wins1 draws9 Celtic wins
Goals per game0.40 – 2.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets0% · 70%
- 11 Apr 2026Celtic1–0ST Mirren
- 22 Nov 2025ST Mirren0–1Celtic
- 3 Aug 2025Celtic1–0ST Mirren
- 17 May 2025Celtic1–1ST Mirren
- 1 Mar 2025ST Mirren2–5Celtic
- 5 Jan 2025Celtic3–0ST Mirren
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| ST Mirren | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.25 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 75% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 50% | |
| Failed to score | — | 0% | |
| Games | 0 | 4 |
| ST Mirren | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.80 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% | |
| Failed to score | — | 0% | |
| Games | 0 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| ST Mirren | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 9.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 11.25 | 13.50 | 11.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 2.50 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| ST Mirren | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 12.00 | 11.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.20 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ryan Lee 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.92league 3.54
Red cards0.23league 0.14
Cards 5+23%league 25%
Fouls25.3league 24.5
Penalties0.15league 0.39
Home wins46%league 39%
ST Mirren1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 May 26A · Partick1–11
Celtic2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Aug 26A · Kilmarnock5–10
- W25 Apr 26H · Falkirk3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
ST Mirren4 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Celtic4 games · scored 11 · conceded 2
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
ST Mirren10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.