St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 27). Genk come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. St. Truiden had 6.8 days of rest, Genk 2.7 and had to travel.
Rest days6.8 · 2.7Matches / 14d2 · 4
St. Truiden41%
Draw26%
Genk33%
St. Truiden37%
Draw27%
Genk36%
St. Truiden41%
Draw26%
Genk33%
St. Truiden33%
Draw26%
Genk40%
St. Truiden37%
Draw27%
Genk36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 31
Team strength
St. Truiden
Genk
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
37
AttackIn forecast
46
32
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenGenk
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
75%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.00
ShotsContext
15.63
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
30%
On target shareContext
34%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.63
66%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.38
Shots allowedContext
10.63
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
72%
Save rateContext
65%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
445
PassesContext
538
363
Accurate passesContext
475
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.63
FoulsContext
9.88
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.20
ShotsContext
15.70
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
30%
On target shareContext
33%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
62%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
10.90
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.90
BlocksContext
2.78
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
74%
Save rateContext
69%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
482
PassesContext
541
399
Accurate passesContext
480
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.10
FoulsContext
10.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel—1,852 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 48 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,852 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 2 / 4 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
60R. Vanwesemael
42Keisuke Goto
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
77Z. El Ouahdi
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
27K. Nkuba
8B. Heynen
24N. Sattlberger
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
17P. Hrošovský
10J. Ito
99J. Erabi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Genk · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 St. Truiden wins2 draws0 Genk wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Jan 2024St. Truiden1–1Genk
- 24 Sep 2023Genk3–3St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 63% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 88% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| St. Truiden | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.56 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 56% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 78% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 11% | |
| Games | 8 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.86 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 9.63 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.51 | 4.25 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| St. Truiden | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 8.90 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.10 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.06league 3.85
Red cards0.42league 0.22
Cards 5+61%league 43%
Fouls22.4league 22.9
Penalties0.10league 0.31
Home wins39%league 43%
St. Truiden1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Aug 23H · Anderlecht0–14
Genk3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D3 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–10
- D17 Mar 24A · KVC Westerlo1–12
- W16 Sep 23A · Union St. Gilloise2–06
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden8 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Genk8 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
