St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for St. Truiden. St. Truiden had 3.2 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 3.1 and had to travel.
Rest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
St. Truiden34%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise42%
St. Truiden32%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise42%
St. Truiden34%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise42%
St. Truiden27%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise49%
St. Truiden34%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise42%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 47
Team strength
St. Truiden
Union St. Gilloise
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
37
AttackIn forecast
62
32
DefenceIn forecast
74
51
Form indexContext
66
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenUnion St. Gilloise
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+1.26
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
20.67
ShotsContext
14.33
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
27%
On target shareContext
47%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.67
63%
Box shareContext
81%
13%
ConversionContext
19%
2.67
OffsidesContext
4.67
17.00
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.33
BlocksContext
4.00
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
77%
Save rateContext
89%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
443
PassesContext
448
366
Accurate passesContext
366
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.06
Team ratingContext
7.18
9.33
FoulsContext
11.00
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.25
ShotsContext
15.60
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
28%
On target shareContext
39%
9.38
Shots in the boxContext
11.56
59%
Box shareContext
75%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.14
OffsidesContext
3.13
14.38
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.22
BlocksContext
3.88
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
69%
Save rateContext
61%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
488
PassesContext
430
414
Accurate passesContext
351
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
7.10
9.60
FoulsContext
10.22
8.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
DDW
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 51 · 5 pts vs 4.9 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 3.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
23J. Pupe
26V. Musliu
22W. Janssens
60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako
18N. Ishiwatari
10I. Sebaoui
71R. Araki
7A. Muja
77O. Diouf
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
80O. Kričfaluši
29M. Sylla
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
27L. Patris
23B. Zeneli
9Mateo Biondic
38R. Mofokeng
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Union St. Gilloise · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 St. Truiden wins0 draws5 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.17
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 2 May 2026St. Truiden2–1Union St. Gilloise
- 4 Apr 2026Union St. Gilloise1–0St. Truiden
- 22 Mar 2026St. Truiden1–3Union St. Gilloise
- 26 Oct 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0St. Truiden
- 21 Jan 2024Union St. Gilloise2–1St. Truiden
- 8 Oct 2023St. Truiden0–4Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 3.00 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| St. Truiden | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.33 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| St. Truiden | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.66 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 2.55
Red cards0.28league 0.15
Cards 5+49%league 18%
Fouls22.5league 21.1
Penalties0.17league 0.30
Home wins47%league 48%
St. Truiden4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Feb 26H · Zulte Waregem3–23
- W2 Nov 25H · Antwerp1–03
- W1 Feb 24H · Gent4–12
- D3 Nov 23H · AS Eupen1–11
Union St. Gilloise6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Feb 26H · Club Brugge KV1–03
- W20 Dec 25H · Zulte Waregem2–01
- L30 Nov 25A · Anderlecht0–13
- W21 Sep 25A · Genk2–14
- D24 Aug 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden3 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Union St. Gilloise3 games · scored 8 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
7
5
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
