Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Stade Brestois 29
12th · 38 pts · 33 played
DDLLL
1–1Full time
Angers
13th · 35 pts · 33 played
LDLLD
Our take
Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Angers. Stade Brestois 29 had 4.1 days of rest, Angers 7 and had to travel 310 km.
Away travel310 kmRest days4.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Stade Brestois 2953%
Draw25%
Angers22%
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw25%
Angers21%
Stade Brestois 2953%
Draw25%
Angers22%
Stade Brestois 2946%
Draw26%
Angers28%
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw24%
Angers22%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 59
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29Angers
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
47
AttackIn forecast
22
36
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Angers
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.85
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
67%
Scored inContext
64%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.61
ShotsContext
8.88
3.39
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.47
32%
On target shareContext
36%
6.73
Shots in the boxContext
5.76
64%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.87
OffsidesContext
2.04
13.58
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.84
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.47
4.13
BlocksContext
2.82
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.03
64%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
365
PassesContext
391
289
Accurate passesContext
324
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.61
FoulsContext
10.91
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.91
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.50
ShotsContext
8.80
2.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
27%
On target shareContext
33%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.88
66%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.57
16.00
Shots allowedContext
14.90
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
5.10
BlocksContext
2.70
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
59%
Save rateContext
72%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
363
PassesContext
348
289
Accurate passesContext
283
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.30
FoulsContext
11.10
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,010 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 May | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 310 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,010 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 97 | 97.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
71Raphael Marc Le Guen
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
33H. Makalou
24L. Tousart
99P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
25A. Bamba
26F. Hanin
93H. Belkebla
8B. van den Boomen
15P. Capelle
27L. Rao-Lisoa
7M. Sbaï
9G. Koyalipou
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Angers-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.56points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-5
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.38
Angers · Away
0.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-10
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–5 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Lens | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Nantes | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Rennes | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Auxerre | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Monaco | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| LE Havre | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Metz | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Marseille | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A |
| Lille | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Nice | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Lyon | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game | 35 of 96 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Stade Brestois 29 wins1 draws2 Angers wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.71
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 28 Sep 2025Angers0–2Stade Brestois 29
- 9 Mar 2025Stade Brestois 292–0Angers
- 5 Jan 2025Angers2–0Stade Brestois 29
- 29 Jan 2023Stade Brestois 294–0Angers
- 21 Aug 2022Angers1–3Stade Brestois 29
- 20 Mar 2022Angers1–0Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 0.85 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 2.27 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 39% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 36% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 3.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.48 | 4.97 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 8.55 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 17/29 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 13/29 | 19% 6/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 2.88 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 17/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 13/33 | 15% 5/33 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.63 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 9.34 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.66
Red cards0.37league 0.26
Cards 5+49%league 36%
Fouls26.7league 23.6
Penalties0.36league 0.37
Home wins44%league 46%
Stade Brestois 293 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L14 Apr 24A · Lyon3–45
- W20 Dec 23H · Lorient4–01
- D11 Jan 23H · Lille0–00
Angers5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L11 Apr 26A · Rennes1–22
- L22 Feb 26H · Lille0–13
- D22 Sep 24H · Nantes1–11
- W8 Apr 23H · Lille1–02
- L15 Jan 23H · Clermont Foot1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 2933 games · scored 42 · conceded 54
9
8
0-15
6
12
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
11
61-75
8
11
76-90
Angers33 games · scored 28 · conceded 47
1
7
0-15
6
7
16-30
2
10
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
12
61-75
10
4
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
