Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Stade Brestois 29 had 5.1 days of rest, Lens 7 and had to travel 576 km.
Away travel576 kmRest days5.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Stade Brestois 2924%
Draw23%
Lens53%
Stade Brestois 2932%
Draw27%
Lens41%
Stade Brestois 2924%
Draw24%
Lens52%
Stade Brestois 2918%
Draw21%
Lens61%
Stade Brestois 2924%
Draw23%
Lens52%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 85
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29
Lens
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
47
AttackIn forecast
63
36
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Lens
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.97
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
69%
Scored inContext
83%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
34%
10.72
ShotsContext
15.66
3.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.31
32%
On target shareContext
34%
6.72
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
63%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.84
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.97
Shots allowedContext
10.76
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.93
BlocksContext
3.43
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
66%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
364
PassesContext
455
286
Accurate passesContext
388
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.03
13.10
FoulsContext
12.62
11.59
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
2.14
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.10
ShotsContext
19.70
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
28%
On target shareContext
29%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
13.44
62%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.43
15.20
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.10
BlocksContext
2.50
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
71%
Save rateContext
70%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
338
PassesContext
474
260
Accurate passesContext
411
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.90
FoulsContext
10.90
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km510 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel576 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 576 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 510 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
44S. Coulibaly
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
13J. Chotard
7É. Dina Ebimbe
8H. Magnetti
24L. Tousart
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
27A. Masuaku
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
7F. Sotoca
19A. Sima
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lens+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.71points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.21
Lens · Away
1.64points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-5
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Rennes | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Monaco | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Metz | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Marseille | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Lille | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Nice | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Lyon | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 H | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 37 of 84 · 1.32 per game | 59 of 84 · 2.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Stade Brestois 29 wins1 draws5 Lens wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.67
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 22%
- 29 Aug 2025Lens3–1Stade Brestois 29
- 20 Apr 2025Stade Brestois 291–3Lens
- 25 Aug 2024Lens2–0Stade Brestois 29
- 9 Mar 2024Lens1–0Stade Brestois 29
- 13 Aug 2023Stade Brestois 293–2Lens
- 5 Feb 2023Stade Brestois 291–1Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.97 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 69% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 52% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 34% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 17% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.70 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.31 | 6.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 9.68 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 12/26 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 4.11 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 16/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 12/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.20 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.50 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.66
Red cards0.22league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 35%
Fouls24.4league 23.7
Penalties0.25league 0.36
Home wins52%league 47%
Stade Brestois 298 with this referee
Record2-2-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D1 Feb 26A · Nice2–23
- L27 Apr 25A · Marseille1–43
- L9 Mar 24A · Lens0–12
- D11 Feb 24A · Clermont Foot1–15
- W27 May 23A · Marseille2–12
Lens11 with this referee
Record5-3-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W20 Mar 26H · Angers5–10
- W25 Oct 25H · Marseille2–13
- W15 Mar 25H · Rennes1–01
- D6 Oct 24A · Strasbourg2–24
- W9 Mar 24H · Stade Brestois 291–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 2929 games · scored 38 · conceded 44
7
6
0-15
5
10
16-30
6
7
31-45
7
4
46-60
5
9
61-75
8
8
76-90
Lens29 games · scored 57 · conceded 29
6
6
0-15
6
5
16-30
11
5
31-45
13
3
46-60
8
7
61-75
13
3
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
6
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
