Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 42). Stade Brestois 29 had ? days of rest, Lille ? and had to travel 605 km.
Away travel605 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Stade Brestois 2932%
Draw27%
Lille41%
Stade Brestois 2933%
Draw27%
Lille40%
Stade Brestois 2932%
Draw27%
Lille41%
Stade Brestois 2926%
Draw26%
Lille48%
Stade Brestois 2933%
Draw27%
Lille40%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 114
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29
Lille
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
47
AttackIn forecast
42
36
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Lille
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.40
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
69%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
8.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.80
BlocksContext
2.00
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
50%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
441
PassesContext
530
366
Accurate passesContext
458
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.90
FoulsContext
11.30
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel605 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 605 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1R. Majecki(G)
2B. Locko
26J. Le Cardinal
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
20P. Lees-Melou
23K. Doumbia
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
10R. Del Castillo
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
3N. Ngoy
36O. Touré
21B. André
17N. Mukau
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
14M. Broholm
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lille+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
No home games yet this season.
Lille · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Stade Brestois 29 wins3 draws3 Lille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 10 May 2025Stade Brestois 292–0Lille
- 6 Dec 2024Lille3–1Stade Brestois 29
- 17 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 291–1Lille
- 22 Oct 2023Lille1–0Stade Brestois 29
- 24 Feb 2023Lille2–1Stade Brestois 29
- 11 Jan 2023Stade Brestois 290–0Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 13.25 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.40 | 13.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 4.00
Red cards0.24league 0.25
Cards 5+28%league 75%
Fouls23.1league 23.8
Penalties0.33league 0.00
Home wins41%league 50%
Stade Brestois 297 with this referee
Record0-5-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D23 Feb 25A · Strasbourg0–01
- L2 Nov 24H · Nice0–10
- L14 Sep 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–33
- D4 May 24H · Nantes0–03
- D17 Mar 24H · Lille1–13
Lille9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W5 Oct 24H · Toulouse2–13
- L24 Apr 24A · Monaco0–12
- D17 Mar 24A · Stade Brestois 291–10
- L20 Dec 23A · Strasbourg1–22
- W29 Oct 23H · Monaco2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 29LilleStade Brestois 2910 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
3
1
0-15
5
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
