Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 37). Lyon usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Stade Brestois 29 had 4.1 days of rest, Lyon 4 and had to travel 772 km.
Away travel772 kmRest days4.1 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
Stade Brestois 2930%
Draw27%
Lyon43%
Stade Brestois 2930%
Draw27%
Lyon43%
Stade Brestois 2930%
Draw27%
Lyon44%
Stade Brestois 2924%
Draw25%
Lyon51%
Stade Brestois 2931%
Draw27%
Lyon42%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 124
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29
Lyon
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
47
AttackIn forecast
55
36
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Lyon
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.50
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
30%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
67%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
4.11
BlocksContext
4.78
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
63%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
371
PassesContext
468
293
Accurate passesContext
405
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.00
FoulsContext
15.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.70
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
67%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.70
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
4.11
BlocksContext
4.33
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
63%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
371
PassesContext
511
293
Accurate passesContext
445
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.00
FoulsContext
14.10
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km714 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel772 km791 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 772 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 714 km | 791 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1R. Majecki(G)
2B. Locko
44S. Coulibaly
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
24L. Tousart
13J. Chotard
99P. Mboup
10R. Del Castillo
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
33H. Hateboer
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
17Afonso Moreira
8C. Tolisso
10P. Šulc
20M. Satriano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lyon-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
Lyon · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | W 4–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Lens | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lille | D 3–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Stade Brestois 29 wins2 draws3 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.63
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 2 Mar 2025Lyon2–1Stade Brestois 29
- 11 Jan 2025Stade Brestois 292–1Lyon
- 14 Apr 2024Lyon4–3Stade Brestois 29
- 23 Sep 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Lyon
- 1 Feb 2023Lyon0–0Stade Brestois 29
- 28 Dec 2022Stade Brestois 292–4Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.40 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.90 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.10 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.70 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 3.86
Red cards0.23league 0.30
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls23.2league 24.3
Penalties0.35league 0.48
Home wins40%league 52%
Stade Brestois 298 with this referee
Record0-6-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D17 Aug 25H · Lille3–32
- D23 Feb 25A · Strasbourg0–01
- L2 Nov 24H · Nice0–10
- L14 Sep 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–33
- D4 May 24H · Nantes0–03
Lyon9 with this referee
Record2-2-5
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W19 Sep 25H · Angers1–02
- W16 Feb 24H · Nice1–00
- L2 Dec 23A · Lens2–30
- D8 Oct 23H · Lorient3–30
- L11 Sep 22A · Monaco1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
