Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain – 13 Sep 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 13 · 19:45 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 7th · 5 pts · 3 played DDW

0–1Full time

Paris Saint Germain 15th · 2 pts · 3 played DDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Stade Brestois 29. Stade Brestois 29 had 8 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 4 and had to travel 505 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel505 kmRest days8 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2

Stade Brestois 2915%

Draw18%

Paris Saint Germain67%

Expected goals 1.04 – 2.40

Stade Brestois 2913%

Draw19%

Paris Saint Germain68%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.17

Stade Brestois 2915%

Draw18%

Paris Saint Germain66%

Expected goals 1.04 – 2.33

Stade Brestois 2911%

Draw15%

Paris Saint Germain75%

Expected goals 0.93 – 2.69

Stade Brestois 2916%

Draw19%

Paris Saint Germain65%

Expected goals 1.03 – 2.26

Over 2.5 67% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 80%

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 114

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Paris Saint Germain

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 87

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

47 AttackIn forecast 91

36 DefenceIn forecast 83

50 Form indexContext 43

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Paris Saint Germain

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

-0.73 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

23.33 ShotsContext 19.33

7.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

33% On target shareContext 31%

16.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

71% Box shareContext 41%

9% ConversionContext 9%

3.50 OffsidesContext 6.00

10.67 Shots allowedContext 7.33

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.00 BlocksContext 1.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

67% Save rateContext 50%

48% PossessionIn forecast 70%

400 PassesContext 766

318 Accurate passesContext 696

80% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.91

16.33 FoulsContext 7.33

15.67 Fouls sufferedContext 9.67

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

80% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.90 ShotsContext 19.40

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

32% On target shareContext 31%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.60

70% Box shareContext 55%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.63 OffsidesContext 3.29

14.40 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.20 BlocksContext 3.14

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

57% Save rateContext 76%

46% PossessionIn forecast 65%

392 PassesContext 686

318 Accurate passesContext 615

81% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.06

12.30 FoulsContext 7.80

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29 DDW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km714 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 50 · 5 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts
D29 AugH · Toulouse2–21.5 xPts
D22 AugA · Le Mans2–21.2 xPts

Paris Saint Germain DDLW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel505 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 43 · 5 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected

W9 SepH · Slovan Bratislava6–12.7 xPts
L4 SepH · Monaco1–22.2 xPts
D28 AugA · Lille2–21.8 xPts
D23 AugA · Rennes2–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Sep	4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	505 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	714 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Selvik(G)

2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 71Raphael Marc Le Guen 70K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 10G. Versini

19L. Ajorque

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

25Nuno Mendes 51W. Pacho 5Marquinhos 2A. Hakimi

87João Neves 17Vitinha 33W. Zaïre-Emery

7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 10M. Dembélé

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29-0.7 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Paris Saint Germain+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Paris Saint Germain · Away 1.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

0 Stade Brestois 29 wins1 draws9 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game0.80 – 3.00 Over 2.580% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

10 May 2026Paris Saint Germain1–0Stade Brestois 29
25 Oct 2025Stade Brestois 290–3Paris Saint Germain
19 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain7–0Stade Brestois 29
11 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 290–3Paris Saint Germain
1 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 292–5Paris Saint Germain
14 Sep 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.67
Conceded per game	1.67	2.00
Match goals	3.67	3.67	3.45
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	67%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	3	3

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.30
Conceded per game	2.10	1.10
Match goals	3.60	3.40	3.45
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	67%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	—
Corners conceded	2.67	—
Match total	10.00	—	10.07
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	—
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	—
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	—
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.33
Opponent cards	2.00	1.67
Match total	3.33	3.00	2.97
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3

	Stade Brestois 29	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	7.57
Corners conceded	5.00	2.71
Match total	10.13	10.28	10.07
Over 8.5	100% 8/8	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.10
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	3.30	2.50	2.97
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 114 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.48league 2.86

Red cards0.25league 0.11

Cards 5+36%league 17%

Fouls24.6league 23.4

Penalties0.39league 0.34

Home wins42%league 29%

Stade Brestois 295 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.0 Pens for · against2 · 1

L8 Nov 25A · Marseille0–31
W28 Sep 25A · Angers2–01
W3 May 23H · Nantes2–00
D30 Oct 22H · Reims0–01
L26 Sep 21H · Metz1–23

Paris Saint Germain18 with this referee

Record11-4-3 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against4 · 3

W21 Mar 26A · Nice4–01
W8 Feb 26H · Marseille5–02
D29 Oct 25A · Lorient1–12
L25 Apr 25H · Nice1–33
W15 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.