Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Stade Brestois 29
12th · 38 pts · 32 played
LDDLL
1–2Full time
Strasbourg
8th · 47 pts · 32 played
WLWLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 34). Strasbourg usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Stade Brestois 29 had 2.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 2.9 and had to travel 901 km.
Away travel901 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Stade Brestois 2936%
Draw28%
Strasbourg37%
Stade Brestois 2937%
Draw27%
Strasbourg36%
Stade Brestois 2935%
Draw28%
Strasbourg37%
Stade Brestois 2929%
Draw27%
Strasbourg44%
Stade Brestois 2937%
Draw27%
Strasbourg36%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 88
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29Strasbourg
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
47
AttackIn forecast
40
36
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Strasbourg
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
66%
Scored inContext
81%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
10.28
ShotsContext
10.88
3.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
32%
On target shareContext
41%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.61
64%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.69
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
4.19
BlocksContext
3.19
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.16
65%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
362
PassesContext
512
285
Accurate passesContext
453
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.69
FoulsContext
11.09
11.31
Fouls sufferedContext
12.47
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.60
ShotsContext
10.20
2.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
28%
On target shareContext
41%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
66%
Box shareContext
61%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.70
Shots allowedContext
15.70
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.44
5.30
BlocksContext
3.80
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
64%
Save rateContext
72%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
346
PassesContext
501
272
Accurate passesContext
438
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.30
FoulsContext
10.90
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,019 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Strasbourg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel901 km1,258 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May | 2.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 901 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,019 km | 1,258 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
4M. Diaz
71Raphael Marc Le Guen
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
7É. Dina Ebimbe
23K. Doumbia
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
42A. Ouattara
24L. Høgsberg
2A. Omobamidele
22G. Doué
29S. El Mourabet
32V. Barco
20B. Godo
11A. Nanasi
7Diego Moreira
19J. Enciso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Strasbourg-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.33
Strasbourg · Away
1.25points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-6
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 0–4 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Lens | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Nantes | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Rennes | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Auxerre | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Monaco | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| LE Havre | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Metz | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Marseille | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Lille | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Nice | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Lyon | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 AW 5–0 H |
| Points | 35 of 93 · 1.13 per game | 47 of 93 · 1.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Stade Brestois 29 wins3 draws2 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.89
Over 2.544%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 30 Nov 2025Strasbourg1–2Stade Brestois 29
- 23 Feb 2025Strasbourg0–0Stade Brestois 29
- 30 Nov 2024Stade Brestois 293–1Strasbourg
- 24 Feb 2024Strasbourg0–3Stade Brestois 29
- 7 Dec 2023Stade Brestois 291–1Strasbourg
- 5 Mar 2023Strasbourg0–1Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 2.91 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 63% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 19% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.18 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.54 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 8.79 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 13/28 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.91 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.84 | 1.91 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.88 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 17/32 | 69% 22/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 13/32 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.38 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 10.44 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.50 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.68
Red cards0.26league 0.26
Cards 5+36%league 36%
Fouls25.5league 23.6
Penalties0.25league 0.37
Home wins42%league 47%
Stade Brestois 2914 with this referee
Record3-2-9
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- L13 Dec 25A · Rennes1–33
- L29 Oct 25A · LE Havre0–13
- L24 Aug 25A · Toulouse0–21
- L20 Apr 25H · Lens1–31
- L2 Mar 25A · Lyon1–21
Strasbourg10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W26 Apr 26A · Lorient3–23
- D15 Mar 26H · Paris FC0–02
- W16 Feb 25A · Lens2–02
- L21 Apr 24A · Lille0–13
- D28 Jan 24A · Clermont Foot1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 2932 games · scored 41 · conceded 52
8
7
0-15
6
11
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
11
61-75
8
11
76-90
Strasbourg32 games · scored 51 · conceded 42
3
5
0-15
9
6
16-30
10
3
31-45
7
13
46-60
9
3
61-75
13
12
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
