Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse – 25 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 25 · 16:15 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 11th · 22 pts · 18 played WWLWL

0–2Full time

Toulouse 8th · 26 pts · 18 played DWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Stade Brestois 29 had 6.9 days of rest, Toulouse 7.9 and had to travel 702 km.

Away travel702 kmRest days6.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Stade Brestois 2945%

Draw27%

Toulouse29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.17

Stade Brestois 2944%

Draw27%

Toulouse29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.19

Stade Brestois 2944%

Draw27%

Toulouse29%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.16

Stade Brestois 2937%

Draw27%

Toulouse35%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.31

Stade Brestois 2945%

Draw26%

Toulouse29%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.24

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

No weather data yet

RefereeGuillaume Paradis

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 8

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Toulouse

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

47 AttackIn forecast 45

36 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Toulouse

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.61

1.61 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.28

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

67% Scored inContext 72%

28% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.56 ShotsContext 12.22

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.06

34% On target shareContext 33%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.69

66% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.69 OffsidesContext 1.60

12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.39

4.53 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.65

3.41 BlocksContext 3.59

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.53

64% Save rateContext 64%

44% PossessionIn forecast 41%

372 PassesContext 338

295 Accurate passesContext 272

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.84

13.06 FoulsContext 14.00

11.11 Fouls sufferedContext 11.89

1.72 Yellow cardsContext 2.17

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

60% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.90 ShotsContext 12.00

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

36% On target shareContext 32%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.56

63% Box shareContext 73%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.40

11.80 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

2.90 BlocksContext 2.70

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

66% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 41%

373 PassesContext 344

298 Accurate passesContext 276

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.84

13.50 FoulsContext 13.90

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,543 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Toulouse

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel702 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan	7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	702 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,543 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-2-2

30G. Coudert(G)

27D. Guindo 44S. Coulibaly 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

23K. Doumbia 24L. Tousart

14R. Labeau-Lascary 19L. Ajorque

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Restes(G)

2R. Nicolaisen 4C. Cresswell 3M. McKenzie

19D. Sidibé 18Pape Diop 23C. Cásseres 22R. Messali

10G. Gboho 15A. Dønnum

11S. Hidalgo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Toulouse Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Toulouse-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-2
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.22

Toulouse · Away 1.38points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse
Lyon	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Auxerre	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Rennes	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 H
Monaco	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Strasbourg	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Metz	W 3–2 H	W 4–0 H
Marseille	L 0–3 A	D 2–2 A
LE Havre	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 H	L 3–6 H
Lorient	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 A
Nantes	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 H
Angers	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 H
Nice	W 4–1 H	W 5–1 HW 1–0 A
Paris FC	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 A
Lens	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 H
Lille	D 3–3 H	L 1–2 A
Points	22 of 51 · 1.29 per game	23 of 51 · 1.35 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

4 Stade Brestois 29 wins2 draws1 Toulouse wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

24 Aug 2025Toulouse2–0Stade Brestois 29
30 Mar 2025Toulouse2–4Stade Brestois 29
22 Sep 2024Stade Brestois 292–0Toulouse
19 May 2024Toulouse0–3Stade Brestois 29
8 Oct 2023Stade Brestois 291–1Toulouse
2 Apr 2023Stade Brestois 293–1Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	1.61
Conceded per game	1.61	1.28
Match goals	2.94	2.89	2.68
Over 1.5	78%	67%
Over 2.5	61%	56%	50%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	44%	54%
Clean sheets	28%	33%
Failed to score	33%	28%
Games	18	18

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	2.50	2.50	2.68
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	4.69	4.50
Corners conceded	4.88	5.44
Match total	9.57	9.94	9.29
Over 8.5	44% 7/16	72% 13/18
Over 9.5	44% 7/16	67% 12/18
Over 10.5	44% 7/16	56% 10/18
Cards
Cards	1.89	2.28
Opponent cards	1.61	2.11
Match total	3.50	4.39	3.96
Over 3.5	44% 8/18	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	33% 6/18	44% 8/18

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	4.90
Corners conceded	4.25	5.10
Match total	9.00	10.00	9.29
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.00
Opponent cards	1.60	2.50
Match total	3.70	4.50	3.96
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillaume Paradis 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 3.62

Red cards0.00league 0.32

Cards 5+25%league 35%

Fouls25.5league 24.2

Penalties0.13league 0.43

Home wins38%league 50%

Stade Brestois 29

No previous matches with this referee.

Toulouse1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L25 Oct 25A · Monaco0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.