Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Standard Liege were slight favourites.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Antwerp. Standard Liege had 7 days of rest, Antwerp 6.2 and had to travel 101 km.
Away travel101 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Standard Liege50%
Draw23%
Antwerp27%
Standard Liege49%
Draw25%
Antwerp26%
Standard Liege50%
Draw23%
Antwerp27%
Standard Liege42%
Draw24%
Antwerp35%
Standard Liege50%
Draw23%
Antwerp27%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 58
Team strength
Standard Liege
Antwerp
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
29
AttackIn forecast
24
29
DefenceIn forecast
19
54
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeAntwerp
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+1.03
100%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.00
ShotsContext
16.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.75
39%
On target shareContext
41%
9.25
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
70%
Box shareContext
66%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
3.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.75
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
5.25
BlocksContext
3.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
53%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
450
PassesContext
412
344
Accurate passesContext
334
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.25
FoulsContext
13.50
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
8.25
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
40%
On target shareContext
37%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
69%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
17.50
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
5.60
BlocksContext
4.20
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
75%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
400
PassesContext
434
311
Accurate passesContext
362
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.90
8.40
FoulsContext
12.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
DDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km133 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Antwerp
WWDL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel101 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 101 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 133 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar
22A. Trouillet
94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid
10D. Eckert Ayensa
17Bernard Nguene
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
17S. Renders
3Álvaro Cortés
4Yuto Tsunashima
44M. Busi
10C. Scott
48A. Vermeeren
14Xander Dierickx
24T. Somers
9M. Frey
7I. Salah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Antwerp · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Standard Liege wins1 draws3 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 3 May 2026Antwerp0–5Standard Liege
- 21 Apr 2026Standard Liege1–2Antwerp
- 15 Mar 2026Antwerp1–1Standard Liege
- 20 Oct 2025Standard Liege1–0Antwerp
- 31 Jan 2024Standard Liege0–1Antwerp
- 11 Nov 2023Antwerp6–0Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 4.75 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.90 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.95league 2.74
Red cards0.31league 0.13
Cards 5+64%league 21%
Fouls23.1league 21.8
Penalties0.22league 0.26
Home wins47%league 46%
Standard Liege4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D14 Feb 26H · Union St. Gilloise1–14
- D21 Nov 25H · Zulte Waregem0–03
- L31 Aug 25A · OH Leuven0–13
- W26 Jul 25A · RAAL La Louvière2–01
Antwerp3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Sep 25H · Gent1–24
- D3 Aug 25A · Genk1–12
- D18 Aug 23A · OH Leuven1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege4 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
76-90
Antwerp4 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
46-60
6
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
