Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Standard Liege were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Standard Liege had 6.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 6 and had to travel 176 km.
Away travel176 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Standard Liege45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
Standard Liege46%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge27%
Standard Liege45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
Standard Liege38%
Draw28%
Cercle Brugge34%
Standard Liege46%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge27%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 17
Team strength
Standard Liege
Cercle Brugge
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
29
AttackIn forecast
24
29
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeCercle Brugge
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
75%
Scored inContext
25%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
7.25
ShotsContext
11.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
55%
On target shareContext
30%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
73%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
5.75
BlocksContext
2.50
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
79%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
337
PassesContext
340
265
Accurate passesContext
258
79%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.75
FoulsContext
10.25
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
12.90
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
44%
On target shareContext
38%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
66%
Box shareContext
72%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.90
BlocksContext
3.30
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
76%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
422
PassesContext
320
340
Accurate passesContext
225
81%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.01
10.20
FoulsContext
12.00
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel176 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 16 Aug | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 176 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 178 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
5B. Bolingoli-Mbombo
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
13M. Fossey
94C. Nielsen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
7T. Mohr
8N. Mehssatou
11A. Abid
17R. Saïd
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
66C. Ravych
3E. Utkus
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
6L. Agyekum
11A. Minda
9S. Ngoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Cercle Brugge · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Standard Liege wins1 draws1 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 26 Jan 2024Cercle Brugge1–1Standard Liege
- 19 Aug 2023Standard Liege0–1Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.25 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 9.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.70 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.65league 3.56
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+12%league 31%
Fouls19.0league 23.3
Penalties0.24league 0.38
Home wins47%league 47%
Standard Liege1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L20 Dec 23A · KV Mechelen0–31
Cercle Brugge2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Mar 24H · KV Mechelen2–31
- L5 Nov 23H · Anderlecht0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege4 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Cercle Brugge4 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
