Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Standard Liege
9th · 27 pts · 21 played
WLWLL
First leg0–4
0–4Full time
Gent
6th · 29 pts · 21 played
DLLWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 26). Standard Liege had 5.1 days of rest, Gent 5.3 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days5.1 · 5.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Standard Liege36%
Draw28%
Gent36%
Standard Liege37%
Draw27%
Gent36%
Standard Liege36%
Draw28%
Gent36%
Standard Liege29%
Draw27%
Gent43%
Standard Liege37%
Draw27%
Gent36%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 37
Team strength
Standard LiegeGent
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
29
AttackIn forecast
46
29
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeGent
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.52
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
57%
Scored inContext
81%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
9.57
ShotsContext
12.86
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
35%
On target shareContext
34%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
65%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.95
Shots allowedContext
13.76
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.05
4.05
BlocksContext
4.11
3.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.85
75%
Save rateContext
76%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
363
PassesContext
446
283
Accurate passesContext
368
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.95
FoulsContext
10.76
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.81
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.19
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.20
ShotsContext
13.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
70%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.90
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.60
BlocksContext
3.80
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
74%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
377
PassesContext
409
296
Accurate passesContext
333
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.90
FoulsContext
11.10
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km166 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel138 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 5.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 166 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen
25I. Hautekiet
29D. Dierckx
18H. Lawrence
8N. Mehssatou
23M. Ilaimaharitra
17R. Saïd
80T. Teuma
11A. Abid
9T. Henry
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
22Leonardo Lopes
15A. Ito
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
24H. Hong
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.20
Gent · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 4–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 0–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 27 of 60 · 1.35 per game | 26 of 60 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Standard Liege wins0 draws2 Gent wins
Goals per game1.67 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 25 Oct 2025Gent4–0Standard Liege
- 2 Mar 2024Standard Liege4–2Gent
- 29 Oct 2023Gent3–1Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.52 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.05 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 57% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 62% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 19% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Standard Liege | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.80 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 5.16 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.90 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.81 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 10/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Standard Liege | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.63 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.70 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.84
Red cards0.35league 0.19
Cards 5+38%league 40%
Fouls25.0league 22.9
Penalties0.32league 0.29
Home wins43%league 42%
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Oct 25H · Antwerp1–03
- D16 Dec 23H · Charleroi0–01
- W30 Sep 23A · OH Leuven2–11
Gent3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D31 Aug 25H · Club Brugge KV1–13
- L11 Feb 24H · Cercle Brugge1–21
- D26 Nov 23H · Union St. Gilloise1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege21 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
4
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
5
76-90
Gent21 games · scored 32 · conceded 31
4
2
0-15
5
8
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
12
8
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
