Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Aug 21 · 19:45 Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik
Standard Liege 11th · 2 pts · 2 played
2–0Full time
RAAL La Louvière 15th · 0 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Standard Liege were slight favourites.

Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Standard Liege. Standard Liege had 5.1 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 5.2 and had to travel 99 km.

Away travel99 kmRest days5.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Standard Liege59%
Draw22%
RAAL La Louvière19%
Expected goals 1.97 – 1.02
Standard Liege56%
Draw23%
RAAL La Louvière20%
Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99
Standard Liege59%
Draw22%
RAAL La Louvière19%
Expected goals 1.97 – 1.02
Standard Liege52%
Draw24%
RAAL La Louvière25%
Expected goals 1.76 – 1.14
Standard Liege60%
Draw21%
RAAL La Louvière19%
Expected goals 2.04 – 1.07
Over 2.5 57% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)

No weather data yet

RefereeNathan Verboomen
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.17
  • Matches 46

Team strength

Standard LiegeRAAL La Louvière
34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 17
29 AttackIn forecast 15
29 DefenceIn forecast 15
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Standard LiegeRAAL La Louvière
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.12 xGVia Att/Def 0.64
2.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.12
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.36
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
18.00 ShotsContext 8.00
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
36% On target shareContext 44%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext —
69% Box shareContext —
14% ConversionContext 13%
— OffsidesContext 2.50
18.50 Shots allowedContext 20.00
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.50 BlocksContext 7.00
— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
25% Save rateContext 60%
52% PossessionIn forecast 36%
445 PassesContext 359
337 Accurate passesContext 283
76% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.80
13.00 FoulsContext 12.00
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.22
1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86
+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
80% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.10 ShotsContext 11.90
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
37% On target shareContext 32%
8.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.11
67% Box shareContext 71%
15% ConversionContext 13%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.13
17.00 Shots allowedContext 14.30
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
5.20 BlocksContext 3.70
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
69% Save rateContext 57%
45% PossessionIn forecast 43%
378 PassesContext 334
294 Accurate passesContext 257
78% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.76
8.60 FoulsContext 10.80
12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Standard Liege
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 2 pts vs 3.6 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • D16 AugA · KV Mechelen3–31.4 xPts
  • D8 AugH · Cercle Brugge2–21.7 xPts
RAAL La Louvière
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel99 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 0 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
  • L16 AugH · Gent1–21.2 xPts
  • L9 AugA · Anderlecht1–20.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Standard Liege RAAL La Louvière
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Aug5.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km99 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways176 km84 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 21 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one87.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Standard Liege Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen 25I. Hautekiet 20I. Karamoko 18H. Lawrence
84R. Touzghar 22A. Trouillet 94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid 10D. Eckert Ayensa 17Bernard Nguene
RAAL La Louvière Confirmed XI
5-3-2
21M. Peano(G)
5T. Lutonda 25D. Lamego 99Y. Okou 4Wagane Faye 18S. Delos
78A. Tajaouart 48I. Coulibaly 10M. Wade
9E. Filet 11M. Isah

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Standard Liege+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Standard Liege · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.00
RAAL La Louvière · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Standard Liege wins1 draws0 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 27 Feb 2026Standard Liege1–1RAAL La Louvière
  • 26 Jul 2025RAAL La Louvière0–2Standard Liege

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Standard LiegeRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 2.501.00
Conceded per game 2.502.00
Match goals 5.003.00 2.99
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100% 57%
Over 3.5 100%0%
Both teams scored 100%100% 55%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Standard LiegeRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 1.401.30
Conceded per game 1.101.60
Match goals 2.502.90 2.99
Over 1.5 80%80%
Over 2.5 40%50% 57%
Over 3.5 20%20%
Both teams scored 50%70% 55%
Clean sheets 40%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Standard LiegeRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.503.50
Corners conceded8.006.50
Match total12.5010.0010.89
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.002.00
Opponent cards0.501.00
Match total2.503.002.61
Over 3.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Standard LiegeRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won3.905.30
Corners conceded7.104.80
Match total11.0010.1010.89
Over 8.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 9.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.401.70
Opponent cards2.401.50
Match total3.803.202.61
Over 3.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nathan Verboomen 46 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 2.50
Red cards0.26league 0.11
Cards 5+50%league 22%
Fouls22.4league 21.3
Penalties0.17league 0.33
Home wins46%league 44%
Standard Liege6 with this referee
Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.0 Pens for · against3 · 0
  • L21 Apr 26H · Antwerp1–21
  • D15 Mar 26A · Antwerp1–13
  • L25 Oct 25A · Gent0–42
  • W10 Aug 25H · Genk2–13
  • W16 Mar 24H · AS Eupen4–00
RAAL La Louvière4 with this referee
Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • D22 Mar 26H · Genk5–52
  • L5 Dec 25H · Dender1–21
  • D24 Aug 25H · Union St. Gilloise0–02
  • L2 Aug 25A · Gent0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Standard Liege2 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
3 76-90
RAAL La Louvière2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
5 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 4 61-75
3 4 76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 4 0-15
3 16-30
3 5 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 4 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege RAAL La Louvière 20 Zulte Waregem SK Beveren 40 Charleroi KV Mechelen 20 Antwerp Genk 44 Lommel United KVC Westerlo 40 Club Brugge KV Cercle Brugge 10 Union St. Gilloise Anderlecht 30