Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Standard Liege
11th · 17 pts · 14 played
LWLWL
0–0Full time
Zulte Waregem
8th · 19 pts · 14 played
DWDLD
Our take
Standard Liege were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Standard Liege had 12.2 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 14 and had to travel 153 km.
Away travel153 kmRest days12.2 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Standard Liege42%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem30%
Standard Liege43%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem30%
Standard Liege42%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem30%
Standard Liege35%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem37%
Standard Liege43%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem30%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 37
Team strength
Standard LiegeZulte Waregem
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
29
AttackIn forecast
27
29
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeZulte Waregem
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
57%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.86
3.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
38%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.23
64%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.45
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.86
Shots allowedContext
14.14
4.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.21
4.50
BlocksContext
3.46
3.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
71%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
354
PassesContext
385
275
Accurate passesContext
313
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.79
FoulsContext
11.36
11.93
Fouls sufferedContext
10.93
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.90
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
30%
On target shareContext
40%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
64%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.11
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
68%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
361
PassesContext
386
279
Accurate passesContext
314
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.20
FoulsContext
12.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest12.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel153 km91 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 153 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 91 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
24J. Homawoo
29D. Dierckx
18H. Lawrence
20I. Karamoko
8N. Mehssatou
17R. Saïd
27Mo El Hankouri
11A. Abid
9T. Henry
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
4L. Lemoine
3Anton Tanghe
19Benoit Nyssen
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
39M. Aké
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
22J. Opoku
18A. Ementa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.29
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Charleroi | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Gent | L 0–4 A | W 4–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Dender | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game | 19 of 42 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Standard Liege | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.64 | 6.85 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.08 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.64 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 8/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Standard Liege | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.89 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.70 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.08league 3.84
Red cards0.38league 0.21
Cards 5+65%league 41%
Fouls22.9league 23.0
Penalties0.14league 0.29
Home wins41%league 45%
Standard Liege2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L31 Aug 25A · OH Leuven0–13
- W26 Jul 25A · RAAL La Louvière2–01
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege14 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem14 games · scored 21 · conceded 21
3
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
