Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 25). Strasbourg had 3 days of rest, Auxerre 3.2 and had to travel 322 km.
Away travel322 kmRest days3 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Strasbourg59%
Draw23%
Auxerre18%
Strasbourg59%
Draw23%
Auxerre18%
Strasbourg59%
Draw23%
Auxerre18%
Strasbourg52%
Draw25%
Auxerre23%
Strasbourg59%
Draw23%
Auxerre18%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 65
Team strength
Strasbourg
Auxerre
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
40
AttackIn forecast
39
37
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgAuxerre
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.78
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
100%
Scored inContext
67%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.78
ShotsContext
10.67
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
43%
On target shareContext
29%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
73%
Box shareContext
57%
19%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
4.00
11.22
Shots allowedContext
11.78
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.25
BlocksContext
3.25
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
71%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
476
PassesContext
363
415
Accurate passesContext
288
87%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.44
FoulsContext
13.56
12.78
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.22
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
10.00
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
43%
On target shareContext
29%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
76%
Box shareContext
54%
20%
ConversionContext
8%
1.44
OffsidesContext
3.25
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.11
BlocksContext
3.11
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
492
PassesContext
356
431
Accurate passesContext
283
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.70
FoulsContext
13.10
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,548 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Auxerre
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel322 km784 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 3.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 322 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,548 km | 784 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.7 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
23M. Sarr
2A. Omobamidele
22G. Doué
7Diego Moreira
32V. Barco
83R. Luis
42A. Ouattara
11A. Nanasi
20B. Godo
9J. Panichelli
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
92C. Akpa
17O. El Azzouzi
20S. Diomandé
22F. Oppegård
18A. Dioussé
42E. Owusu
29M. Senaya
23I. Osman
7J. Casimir
10L. Sinayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Auxerre-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Auxerre · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | D 3–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 0 of 12 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Strasbourg wins0 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 2 Mar 2025Auxerre0–1Strasbourg
- 5 Jan 2025Strasbourg3–1Auxerre
- 19 Mar 2023Strasbourg2–0Auxerre
- 27 Aug 2022Auxerre1–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.22 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Strasbourg | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.22 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 7.66 | 9.67 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 4.22 | 5.89 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Strasbourg | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.11 | 9.30 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.50 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.81
Red cards0.45league 0.29
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls23.9league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.53
Home wins42%league 54%
Strasbourg9 with this referee
Record0-4-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D7 Apr 24A · Toulouse0–00
- L2 Feb 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–23
- L20 Aug 23A · Monaco0–31
- L28 Apr 23H · Lyon1–22
- L5 Mar 23H · Stade Brestois 290–12
Auxerre2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L16 Sep 22H · Lorient1–33
- D14 Aug 22H · Angers2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg9 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
7
76-90
Auxerre9 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
8
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
