Strasbourg vs Lens – 29 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 16:15 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–1Full time

Lens 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were slight favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Strasbourg had 7.9 days of rest, Lens 7 and had to travel 410 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel410 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Strasbourg28%

Draw22%

Lens50%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.89

Strasbourg35%

Draw26%

Lens38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.37

Strasbourg28%

Draw23%

Lens49%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.85

Strasbourg22%

Draw21%

Lens58%

Expected goals 1.23 – 2.12

Strasbourg28%

Draw23%

Lens49%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.86

Over 2.5 64% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Strasbourg)

26°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 37%

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 87

Team strength

Strasbourg

Lens

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

40 AttackIn forecast 63

37 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Strasbourg

Lens

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 2.15

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.40 ShotsContext 19.60

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

42% On target shareContext 34%

5.33 Shots in the boxContext 13.20

55% Box shareContext 69%

17% ConversionContext 12%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.14

17.30 Shots allowedContext 10.40

6.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.60 BlocksContext 3.50

4.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

71% Save rateContext 65%

52% PossessionIn forecast 56%

451 PassesContext 489

388 Accurate passesContext 421

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.50 FoulsContext 10.00

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg L

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,231 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 40 · 0 pts vs 1.1 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L21 AugA · Marseille0–41.1 xPts

Lens W

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel410 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 60 · 3 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

W22 AugH · Auxerre5–22.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Strasbourg	Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 21 Aug	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	410 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,231 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1F. Jørgensen(G)

24L. Høgsberg 2A. Omobamidele 4J. Mitchell 16Genesis Antwi

10G. Reyna 21Pape Diop 23Diogo Sousa

11A. Nanasi 30J. Ortega 80Gessime Yassine

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

31Souleymane Sagnan 25P. Ganiou 3M. Nawrocki

14M. Udol 27M. Cuisance 8Y. Titraoui 22M. Skóraś

29F. Ivanović 10F. Thauvin

19A. Sima

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Strasbourg Absences are shown before kick-off

Lens Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Strasbourg+0.1 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Lens+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home No home games yet this season.

Lens · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Strasbourg wins3 draws4 Lens wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.20 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%

27 Feb 2026Strasbourg1–1Lens
22 Nov 2025Lens1–0Strasbourg
16 Feb 2025Lens0–2Strasbourg
6 Oct 2024Strasbourg2–2Lens
10 Feb 2024Lens3–1Strasbourg
29 Sep 2023Strasbourg0–1Lens

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Strasbourg	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	5.00
Conceded per game	4.00	2.00
Match goals	4.00	7.00	3.28
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	64%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Strasbourg	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.30
Conceded per game	2.00	1.60
Match goals	3.80	3.90	3.28
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	64%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Strasbourg	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.00
Corners conceded	3.00	7.00
Match total	7.00	11.00	10.25
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	3.00	3.13
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Strasbourg	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	7.44
Corners conceded	5.56	5.11
Match total	9.89	12.55	10.25
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	4.30	3.70	3.13
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.80league 3.00

Red cards0.24league 0.20

Cards 5+37%league 10%

Fouls24.8league 22.6

Penalties0.37league 0.40

Home wins38%league 20%

Strasbourg9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 4 Reds1

L30 Nov 25H · Stade Brestois 291–20
W24 Aug 25H · Nantes1–02
D19 Jan 25A · Marseille1–13
L9 Nov 24H · Monaco1–35
W17 Dec 23A · Lorient2–12

Lens11 with this referee

Record6-5-0 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W14 Feb 26A · Paris FC5–01
W17 Jan 26H · Auxerre1–02
W8 Nov 25A · Monaco4–12
D28 Sep 25A · Rennes0–03
D10 May 25A · Toulouse1–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.