Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Strasbourg. Strasbourg had 8.2 days of rest, Lyon 7 and had to travel 377 km.
Away travel377 kmRest days8.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Strasbourg39%
Draw26%
Lyon34%
Strasbourg33%
Draw27%
Lyon40%
Strasbourg38%
Draw26%
Lyon35%
Strasbourg32%
Draw26%
Lyon42%
Strasbourg39%
Draw27%
Lyon34%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 70
Team strength
Strasbourg
Lyon
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
40
AttackIn forecast
55
37
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgLyon
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
86%
Scored inContext
86%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
55%
10.68
ShotsContext
11.77
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
39%
On target shareContext
38%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.35
70%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.84
OffsidesContext
1.81
11.18
Shots allowedContext
10.45
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.38
BlocksContext
3.94
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
69%
Save rateContext
77%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
503
PassesContext
464
443
Accurate passesContext
399
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.14
FoulsContext
13.77
12.45
Fouls sufferedContext
13.18
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.82
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.30
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
42%
On target shareContext
41%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
68%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.86
11.80
Shots allowedContext
8.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.57
BlocksContext
3.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
70%
Save rateContext
77%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
549
PassesContext
505
493
Accurate passesContext
439
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.02
9.60
FoulsContext
11.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,231 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel377 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,231 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
6I. Doukouré
2A. Omobamidele
22G. Doué
32V. Barco
29S. El Mourabet
20B. Godo
19J. Enciso
7Diego Moreira
9J. Panichelli
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
21R. Kluivert
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
16Abner
10P. Šulc
9Endrick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lyon-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-3
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.70
Lyon · Away
1.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| Lille | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Metz | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Lorient | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Lens | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Rennes | L 1–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Angers | W 5–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | W 3–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 31 of 63 · 1.48 per game | 42 of 63 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Strasbourg wins1 draws5 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.78 – 2.00
Over 2.589%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Oct 2025Lyon2–1Strasbourg
- 28 Mar 2025Strasbourg4–2Lyon
- 30 Aug 2024Lyon4–3Strasbourg
- 19 May 2024Lyon2–1Strasbourg
- 13 Aug 2023Strasbourg2–1Lyon
- 28 Apr 2023Strasbourg1–2Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 2.55 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 41% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 55% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Strasbourg | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.35 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 7.95 | 10.40 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 9/20 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 5/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 5/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.09 | 2.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 2.59 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.68 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 77% 17/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 7/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Strasbourg | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 8.55 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.50 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 3.68
Red cards0.41league 0.30
Cards 5+44%league 37%
Fouls23.9league 24.1
Penalties0.34league 0.40
Home wins41%league 49%
Strasbourg10 with this referee
Record1-4-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Oct 25H · Auxerre3–01
- D7 Apr 24A · Toulouse0–00
- L2 Feb 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–23
- L20 Aug 23A · Monaco0–31
- L28 Apr 23H · Lyon1–22
Lyon8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds2
- L14 Sep 25A · Rennes1–33
- W15 Dec 23A · Monaco1–02
- L14 May 23A · Clermont Foot1–23
- W28 Apr 23A · Strasbourg2–14
- D1 Feb 23H · Stade Brestois 290–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg22 games · scored 36 · conceded 29
3
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
6
8
46-60
8
1
61-75
8
10
76-90
Lyon22 games · scored 36 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
5
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
9
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 22 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
9
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
