Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Monaco. Strasbourg had 4.1 days of rest, Monaco 7 and had to travel 540 km.
Away travel540 kmRest days4.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Strasbourg37%
Draw25%
Monaco38%
Strasbourg40%
Draw27%
Monaco33%
Strasbourg37%
Draw25%
Monaco38%
Strasbourg30%
Draw25%
Monaco45%
Strasbourg37%
Draw25%
Monaco38%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 127
Team strength
Strasbourg
Monaco
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
40
AttackIn forecast
45
37
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgMonaco
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
82%
Scored inContext
79%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.85
ShotsContext
11.82
4.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.12
41%
On target shareContext
35%
7.59
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
68%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.88
12.27
Shots allowedContext
12.76
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.37
BlocksContext
3.59
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
71%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
512
PassesContext
469
453
Accurate passesContext
395
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.09
FoulsContext
12.61
12.39
Fouls sufferedContext
10.85
1.76
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.90
ShotsContext
11.60
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
38%
On target shareContext
38%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
60%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
16.40
Shots allowedContext
12.60
6.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.50
BlocksContext
3.44
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
73%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
497
PassesContext
492
431
Accurate passesContext
417
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.30
FoulsContext
11.80
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,059 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Monaco
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel540 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 May | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 540 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,059 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 96 | 97.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
42A. Ouattara
6I. Doukouré
2A. Omobamidele
22G. Doué
29S. El Mourabet
32V. Barco
20B. Godo
11A. Nanasi
7Diego Moreira
19J. Enciso
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
13C. Mawissa
25W. Faes
5J. Kehrer
24S. Adingra
15M. Camara
6D. Zakaria
4J. Teze
31Ansu Fati
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Monaco-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
1.69points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-5
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 0.94
Monaco · Away
1.38points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-6
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 AW 5–0 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Lorient | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Rennes | L 0–3 HL 1–4 A | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Nice | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Nantes | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 HW 3–2 A | L 1–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lens | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Lille | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H |
| Points | 50 of 96 · 1.56 per game | 51 of 96 · 1.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Strasbourg wins2 draws6 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.89
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 31 Aug 2025Monaco3–2Strasbourg
- 19 Apr 2025Monaco0–0Strasbourg
- 9 Nov 2024Strasbourg1–3Monaco
- 10 Mar 2024Strasbourg0–1Monaco
- 20 Aug 2023Monaco3–0Strasbourg
- 2 Apr 2023Monaco4–3Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 3.18 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 21% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Strasbourg | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.10 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.94 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.00 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 11/30 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 34% 11/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.85 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 3.79 | 4.06 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 22/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 10/33 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Strasbourg | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 9.23 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 127 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 3.66
Red cards0.20league 0.26
Cards 5+47%league 36%
Fouls24.5league 23.6
Penalties0.43league 0.37
Home wins54%league 46%
Strasbourg6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L31 Aug 25A · Monaco2–32
- W26 Apr 25H · Saint Etienne3–11
- W12 Jan 25A · Toulouse2–14
- L24 Nov 24A · Nice1–20
- W27 Aug 23H · Toulouse2–01
Monaco15 with this referee
Record5-4-6
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 4
- D8 Feb 26A · Nice0–02
- W31 Aug 25H · Strasbourg3–22
- W10 May 25H · Lyon2–02
- W12 Apr 25H · Marseille3–02
- L22 Feb 25A · Lille1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg33 games · scored 53 · conceded 43
4
6
0-15
10
6
16-30
10
3
31-45
7
13
46-60
9
3
61-75
13
12
76-90
Monaco33 games · scored 56 · conceded 49
4
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
8
9
31-45
11
6
46-60
14
10
61-75
12
13
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
6
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
