Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Monaco. Strasbourg had 6.1 days of rest, Monaco 7.8 and had to travel 540 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel540 kmRest days6.1 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Strasbourg38%
Draw24%
Monaco38%
Strasbourg39%
Draw26%
Monaco35%
Strasbourg37%
Draw24%
Monaco38%
Strasbourg31%
Draw24%
Monaco45%
Strasbourg38%
Draw24%
Monaco38%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
26°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 33%
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 99
Team strength
Strasbourg
Monaco
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
40
AttackIn forecast
45
37
DefenceIn forecast
56
64
Form indexContext
87
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgMonaco
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
2.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+1.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
13.33
ShotsContext
10.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
53%
On target shareContext
47%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
73%
Box shareContext
56%
20%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
19.00
Shots allowedContext
16.33
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
5.67
BlocksContext
5.00
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
70%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
431
PassesContext
380
374
Accurate passesContext
318
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.18
12.33
FoulsContext
10.67
7.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.93
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
70%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
11.90
5.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
45%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
60%
Box shareContext
62%
18%
ConversionContext
15%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.33
18.40
Shots allowedContext
14.00
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
5.00
BlocksContext
3.89
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
75%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
453
PassesContext
471
391
Accurate passesContext
400
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.90
FoulsContext
11.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
LWW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 7.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 4 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 540 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 544 km | 1,378 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso
6I. Doukouré
4J. Mitchell
16Genesis Antwi
10G. Reyna
21Pape Diop
80Gessime Yassine
11A. Nanasi
30J. Ortega
23Diogo Sousa
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
15E. Dier
72S. Sané
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
8M. Camara
17S. Idumbo
10A. Golovin
46A. Soubeir
29P. Brunner
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Monaco-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Monaco · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Strasbourg wins2 draws6 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 17 May 2026Strasbourg5–4Monaco
- 31 Aug 2025Monaco3–2Strasbourg
- 19 Apr 2025Monaco0–0Strasbourg
- 9 Nov 2024Strasbourg1–3Monaco
- 10 Mar 2024Strasbourg0–1Monaco
- 20 Aug 2023Monaco3–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Strasbourg | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.50 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.66 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Strasbourg | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.12league 3.00
Red cards0.22league 0.14
Cards 5+22%league 18%
Fouls20.3league 22.9
Penalties0.36league 0.43
Home wins49%league 29%
Strasbourg10 with this referee
Record4-1-5
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds2
- L1 Feb 26H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
- L26 Oct 25A · Lyon1–24
- D19 Apr 25A · Monaco0–03
- L2 Nov 24A · Saint Etienne0–21
- W25 Aug 24H · Rennes3–12
Monaco11 with this referee
Record6-2-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L10 Apr 26A · Paris FC1–40
- W13 Feb 26H · Nantes3–15
- L1 Nov 25H · Paris FC0–13
- D19 Apr 25H · Strasbourg0–02
- W28 Feb 25H · Reims3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg3 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Monaco3 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
