Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Toulouse. Strasbourg had 7.1 days of rest, Toulouse 7.8 and had to travel 736 km.
Away travel736 kmRest days7.1 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Strasbourg54%
Draw24%
Toulouse22%
Strasbourg55%
Draw25%
Toulouse21%
Strasbourg55%
Draw24%
Toulouse21%
Strasbourg47%
Draw25%
Toulouse28%
Strasbourg54%
Draw24%
Toulouse23%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 33
Team strength
Strasbourg
Toulouse
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
40
AttackIn forecast
45
37
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgToulouse
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.39
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
68%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.87
ShotsContext
12.39
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
41%
On target shareContext
33%
7.69
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
68%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.29
BlocksContext
3.31
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
70%
Save rateContext
65%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
511
PassesContext
370
452
Accurate passesContext
303
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.20
FoulsContext
13.84
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.03
1.77
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
13.20
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
30%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
62%
Box shareContext
52%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.30
Shots allowedContext
13.50
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.30
BlocksContext
3.22
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
73%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
491
PassesContext
407
427
Accurate passesContext
338
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.80
FoulsContext
13.30
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,658 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Toulouse
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel736 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 736 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,658 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
42A. Ouattara
24L. Høgsberg
6I. Doukouré
8M. Oyedele
80Gessime Yassine
83R. Luis
17M. Amougou
27S. Amo-Ameyaw
11A. Nanasi
34Y. Dieme
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
23C. Cásseres
45A. Vossah
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
11S. Hidalgo
13J. Russell-Rowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Toulouse+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
1.80points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-4
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.87
Toulouse · Away
1.13points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-8
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–3 HL 1–4 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Nice | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lens | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Marseille | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A | L 1–3 AL 3–6 H |
| Lille | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–4 HL 1–2 A |
| Metz | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Angers | W 5–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 46 of 87 · 1.59 per game | 35 of 90 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Strasbourg wins2 draws2 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.29 – 1.00
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 29%
- 6 Dec 2025Toulouse1–0Strasbourg
- 16 Mar 2025Strasbourg2–1Toulouse
- 12 Jan 2025Toulouse1–2Strasbourg
- 7 Apr 2024Toulouse0–0Strasbourg
- 27 Aug 2023Strasbourg2–0Toulouse
- 29 Jan 2023Strasbourg1–2Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 1.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 2.81 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 52% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 45% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 32% | |
| Games | 30 | 31 |
| Strasbourg | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 4.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 4.87 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 9.19 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 15/28 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 9/28 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 4.29 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 9/30 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Strasbourg | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 8.50 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.10 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.06league 3.68
Red cards0.15league 0.27
Cards 5+18%league 36%
Fouls20.8league 23.6
Penalties0.33league 0.37
Home wins48%league 46%
Strasbourg1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Dec 25H · Lorient0–01
Toulouse7 with this referee
Record4-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Mar 26A · Metz4–33
- W17 Jan 26H · Nice5–11
- L22 Nov 24A · Paris Saint Germain0–32
- L29 Sep 24H · Lyon1–22
- W28 Apr 24A · Lorient2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg30 games · scored 49 · conceded 39
3
5
0-15
8
6
16-30
9
2
31-45
7
13
46-60
9
2
61-75
13
11
76-90
Toulouse31 games · scored 43 · conceded 44
8
5
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
6
5
61-75
14
10
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
31-45
5
46-60
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
1
6
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
