Sturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 19:30
Merkur Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz
8th · 6 pts · 3 played
WWL
First leg0–2
0–1Full time
Fenerbahce
7th · 7 pts · 3 played
WDW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,270 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sturm Graz—%
Draw—%
Fenerbahce—%
Weather (Graz)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 139
Team strength
Sturm GrazFenerbahce
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
32
AttackIn forecast
75
37
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sturm GrazFenerbahce
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
67%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
14.00
ShotsContext
15.33
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
38%
On target shareContext
39%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
72%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
17.00
Shots allowedContext
7.33
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
5.00
BlocksContext
3.00
5.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
85%
Save rateContext
88%
32%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
238
PassesContext
594
164
Accurate passesContext
533
69%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.14
Team ratingContext
7.15
17.33
FoulsContext
13.33
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.50
ShotsContext
15.80
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
27%
On target shareContext
41%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
65%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.40
BlocksContext
3.78
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
81%
Save rateContext
76%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
330
PassesContext
506
251
Accurate passesContext
439
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.20
FoulsContext
11.80
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sturm Graz
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km5,772 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,270 km2,599 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sturm Graz |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 5 Aug | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 5 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,270 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,772 km | 2,599 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 36 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sturm Graz
Confirmed XI
53D. Khudyakov(G)
18E. Soglo
21P. Petrović
2J. Mitchell
23A. Malić
43J. Hödl
39Luca Weinhandl
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
19Simon Seidl
20S. Jatta
11A. Kayombo
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
34F. Günok(G)
3A. Brown
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
91N. Kanté
6M. Guendouzi
9M. Aktürkoğlu
10Marco Asensio
11M. Greenwood
94Talisca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sturm Graz
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Sturm Graz · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Fenerbahce · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sturm Graz wins0 draws1 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 5 Aug 2026Fenerbahce2–0Sturm Graz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sturm Graz | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Sturm Graz | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sturm Graz | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 11.00 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 2.34 | 4.00 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Sturm Graz | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.66 | 10.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 6.00 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 139 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 4.28
Red cards0.25league 0.26
Cards 5+58%league 43%
Fouls24.9league 24.9
Penalties0.29league 0.30
Home wins43%league 53%
Sturm GrazNo previous matches with this referee.
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Mar 25H · Rangers1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sturm Graz2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Fenerbahce3 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
2
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Sturm Graz9 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.