UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 21 · 19:30 Merkur Arena, Graz
Sturm Graz
4–0Full time
Heart Of Midlothian
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,616 kmRest days172.9 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Sturm Graz—%
Draw—%
Heart Of Midlothian—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Graz)

No weather data yet

Referee · HungaryGergo Bogar
  • Cards per match 7.0
  • Penalties per match 0.00
  • Matches 1

Team strength

Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 33
32 AttackIn forecast 37
37 DefenceIn forecast 24
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sturm Graz

Attack—
Defense risk—

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sturm GrazHeart Of Midlothian
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.25
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96
+0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.35
90% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.80 ShotsContext 14.80
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90
28% On target shareContext 33%
10.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.70
62% Box shareContext 66%
11% ConversionContext 11%
1.75 OffsidesContext 1.33
13.00 Shots allowedContext 9.20
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.33
3.30 BlocksContext 3.44
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.63
74% Save rateContext 65%
53% PossessionIn forecast 56%
344 PassesContext 403
258 Accurate passesContext 310
75% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.90 Team ratingContext 6.89
10.30 FoulsContext 9.40
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sturm Graz
Rest172.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Heart Of Midlothian
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,616 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sturm Graz Heart Of Midlothian
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match172.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,616 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sturm Graz Confirmed XI
4-4-2
53D. Khudyakov(G)
18E. Soglo 2J. Mitchell 5A. Vallci 28Jurgen Heil
43J. Hödl 39Luca Weinhandl 4J. Gorenc Stankovič 19Simon Seidl
20S. Jatta 17S. Włodarczyk
Heart Of Midlothian Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1A. Schwolow(G)
18Harry Milne 5J. McCart 64M. Fagan-Walcott 2C. Borchgrevink
6O. McEntee 16B. Spittal
89A. Kyziridis 10Cláudio Braga 7C. Miller
11P. Kabore

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sturm Graz Absences are shown before kick-off
Heart Of Midlothian Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sturm Graz · Home No home games yet this season.
Heart Of Midlothian · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Sturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianForecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals ——
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 ——
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored ——
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
Sturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianForecast
Scored per game 0.63—
Conceded per game 1.38—
Match goals 2.00—
Over 1.5 63%—
Over 2.5 50%—
Over 3.5 0%—
Both teams scored 38%—
Clean sheets 25%—
Failed to score 50%—
Games80

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Sturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianLeague
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——8.00
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——4.73
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
Sturm GrazHeart Of MidlothianLeague
Corners
Corners won5.605.56
Corners conceded4.504.78
Match total10.1010.348.00
Over 8.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 9.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 10.550% 5/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards2.703.10
Match total4.905.304.73
Over 3.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 4.540% 4/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gergo Bogar Hungary · 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards7.00league 4.17
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+100%league 37%
Fouls—league 24.8
Penalties0.00league 0.40
Home wins0%league 49%
Sturm Graz

No previous matches with this referee.

Heart Of Midlothian

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Sturm Graz
No complete event data.
Heart Of Midlothian
No complete event data.
Sturm Graz10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
5 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Heart Of Midlothian10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 3 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.